Projected matchups for 4A, 3A, 2A and 1A compared to actual matchups
OK, so the state seeds and pairings were announced Sunday afternoon, so let’s take a look at how my projected pairing fared.
I should note that these projections are not MY projections. They are based off cumulative rankings of the Associated Press, Scorebook Live, Cascadia Preps, MaxPreps and Evans Rankings, and I didn’t adjust them at all if I thought those cumulative ranks were a little off.
The tricky part was placing the seeds 12 through 16. The cumulative rankings gave me a solid top 10, after that data gets sketchy. The people polls — Associated Press, Scorebook Live, Cascadia Preps — only ranked the top 10 teams in each classifications. The algorithm rankings — MaxPreps and Evans Rankings — rank all teams. So I looked at those two rankings to make a best guess for seeds 12 through 16.
Overall, the projections were not too far off. Let’s take a look.
CLASS 4A PROJECTED
(16) Eastmont vs. (1) Graham-Kapowsin
(15) Moses Lake vs. (2) Lake Stevens
(14) North Creek vs. (3) Gonzaga Prep
(13) Kentwood vs. (4) Eastlake
(12) Skyview vs. (5) Kamiakin
(11) Puyallup vs. (6) Bothell
(10) Richland vs. (7) Sumner
(9) Glacier Peak vs. (8) Camas
CLASS 4A ACTUAL
(16) Kentwood vs. (1) Graham-Kapowsin
(15) Eastmont vs. (2) Eastlake
(14) Richland vs. (3) Lake Stevens
(13) North Creek vs. (4) Kamiakin
(12) Puyallup vs. (5) Camas
(11) Moses Lake vs. (6) Gonzaga Prep
(10) Skyview vs. (7) Sumner
(9) Bothell vs. (8) Glacier Peak
Observations: I thought Greater St. Helens League teams would rise from projection to actual, and both Camas and Skyview did. Camas jumped three spots, Skyview two. But seven of the eight “host” teams from projections actually got “host” seeds in the first round. The only misses were Bothell (projected 6th, actual 9th) and Glacier Peak (projected 9th, actual 8th). I also thought the committee thought more highly District 6 teams (Moses Lake in particular) than I would have. I would project big wins for Eastlake and Gonzaga Prep in round 1.
CLASS 3A PROJECTED
(16) Lakes vs. (1) Bellevue
(15) Stanwood vs. (2) Yelm
(14) Spanaway Lake vs. (3) Eastside Catholic
(13) Kelso vs. (4) O’Dea
(12) Seattle Prep vs. (5) Marysville-Pilchuck
(11) Garfield vs. (6) Kennewick
(10) Peninsula vs. (7) Mount Spokane
(9) Rainier Beach vs. (8) Arlington
CLASS 3A ACTUAL
(16) Lakes vs. (1) Bellevue
(15) Stanwood vs. (2) Eastside Catholic
(14) Kelso vs. (3) O’Dea
(13) Seattle Prep vs. (4) Yelm
(12) Garfield vs. (5) Marysville-Pilchuck
(11) Spanaway Lake vs. (6) Kennewick
(10) Mt. Spokane vs. (7) Arlington
(9) Rainier Beach vs. (8) Peninsula
Observations: These were pretty darn close. Most missed seeds were missed by just one spot. The outliers were Spanaway Lake (+3 seeds actual from projected) and Mount Spokane (-3). Nailed the Kelso-O’Dea matchup, except with slightly different seeds.
CLASS 2A PROJECTED
(16) East Valley-Spokane vs. (1) Tumwater
(15) Highline vs. (2) Lynden
(14) Shadle Park vs. (3) North Kitsap
(13) Fife vs. (4) Ridgefield
(12) Othello vs. (5) Steilacoom
(11) W.F. West vs. (6) Squalicum
(10) Orting vs. (7) Prosser
(9) Hockinson vs. (8) Enumclaw
CLASS 2A ACTUAL
(16) East Valley-Spokane vs. (1) Tumwater
(15) Fife vs. (2) Lynden
(14) Shadle Park vs. (3) North Kitsap
(13) Highline vs. (4) Squalicum
(12) Orting vs. (5) Ridgefield
(11) Othello vs. (6) Steilacoom
(10) W.F West vs. (7) Prosser
(9) Enumclaw vs. (8) Hockinson
Observations: Again, 7 of the 8 “host” teams are hosting in first round. The only one missed is the 8-9 game, which had the right matchup but at different host site. Also called the 1-16 game and 3-14 game. Had the Othello-Steilacoom matchup, but with different seeding. Biggest outliers here were Fife (-2) and Squalicum (+2).
CLASS 1A PROJECTED
(16) Bellevue Christian vs. (1) Royal
(15) Granite Falls vs. (2) Eatonville
(14) East Jefferson vs. (3) Lakeside-Nine Mile Falls
(13) Mount Baker vs. (4) Riverside
(12) Montesano vs. (5) Toppenish
(11) Zillah vs. (6) Lynden Christian
(10) Omak vs. (7) King’s
(9) Freeman vs. (8) Tenino
CLASS 1A ACTUAL
(16) Bellevue Christian vs. (1) Royal
(15) East Jefferson vs. (2) Eatonville
(14) Granite Falls vs. (3) Lynden Christian
(13) Omak vs. (4) Lakeside-Nine Mile Falls
(12) Zillah vs. (5) King’s
(11) Freeman vs. (6) Tenino
(10) Montesano vs. (7) Riverside
(9) Toppenish vs. (8) Mount Baker
Observations: Probably the worst of the four projections, but still pretty good. The biggest outlier here in Mount Baker, which went +5 actual. Mount Baker’s scheduled caused a lot pollsters problems. The Mounties lost to 4A Wenatchee and 3A state team Seattle Prep, and they play in a very tough league. The committee recognized this and rewarded the Mounties. The next biggest “misses” were Riverside (-3) and Lynden Christian (+3). Lynden Christian plays in Mount Baker’s league.
