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Hot 4th of July, or more of the same?

As we look ahead to the 4th of July weekend people are wondering, will we see a cool and drippy holiday weekend or will the latest long range models bless us with plenty of sunshine and warm temperatures into the 80’s? Well, it all depends on whether or not you are a “betting” kind of person. If you bet on historical averages, then you won’t get a hot 4th of July. Off of the top of my head, it has been since 1998 and 1999 since we had a washout on the 4th of July. In fact, 1998’s .21″ is the wettest on record for the Portland / Vancouver area. Records date back to 1938.

The last decade has brought us some of our warmest 4th of July’s on record. What about this talk of a really hot 4th of July again this year? The La Nina of last winter is fading, but we are still seeing some hints of it. Today’s cold trough over the Pacific Northwest is a prime example. As I look at the latest data, there appears to be plenty of sunshine in store for this coming weekend and it may just last into early next as well. Just how hot will it get? That is still up in the air. I am hesitant at this point to call for super hot weather. By the way, super hot means anything over 90 for the 4th of July. The record for the 4th of July in Portland is 97 degrees set in 1972, followed closely by 1997’s 94, 2009’s 92 and 2007’s 90 degrees. But, if current forecast models hold up (and that is still “iffy” at this point in time, in my view) we could see 80-85 degrees locally. Hold your breath and cross your fingers! We deserve some nice weather over the 4th of July for all of the rain and cold weather we have experienced this spring.

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Stay tuned!
Steve Pierce
http://www.facebook.com/stevepiercevancouver

Steve Pierce

Steve Pierce

Steve Pierce is widely known as Oregon and Washington's "go-to-guy" when it comes to fast, accurate historical meteorological research and forecasts. Steve is currently the President of the Oregon Chapter of the American Meteorological Society (AMS). Steve is also recognized as a regional weather commentator and blogger who can be heard on local radio stations and seen in print media outlets across the Pacific Northwest. His Weather Blog is hosted by the Columbian Newspaper in Vancouver. Check it out! He is a third generation resident of Vancouver, Washington and holds a degree in Communications. Both sets of Steve's grandparents migrated to Vancouver during World War II. One set traveled from Lenox, Iowa to work in the Kaiser Shipyards supporting the war effort. The other set came to Vancouver from Olympia, Washington to work as educators for the rapidly expanding Vancouver School District. When the war was over, both sets of grandparents decided to stay in Vancouver and continue raising their families, as did thousands of other families at the time. Those who are most familiar with Steve can attest to the fact that weather is his true passion. His love for "all things weather" began at the age of 7 when Mt. St. Helens erupted in 1980. He was fascinated with which direction the ash plumes were headed. Then came the very powerful windstorm of Friday, November 13, 1981, also referred to as the "Friday the 13th" storm. This was the strongest storm to hit the Portland / Vancouver area since the great Columbus Day Storm of 1962! At age 11, he was asked to publish an extended weather forecast for his elementary school's weekly newsletter. In the 1980's, at age 14, Steve was the youngest of KGW-TV's local "weather watchers" and would phone in his daily Vancouver weather stats to then television meteorologist Jim Little for use on-air. Steve has lived through all of the major Pacific Northwest weather events of the past 30 years, and then some. The most notable events include; the bitterly cold winter of 1978-1979, the record setting snow storms of January 1980, the summer heat wave of August 1981, the windstorms of November 1981 and December 1995, the severe arctic blast of February 1989, the record flood of February 1996, the historic ice storm of January 2004, the Vancouver tornado of January 2008 and the record setting snow storm of Christmas 2008. Not to mention every Mt. St. Helens volcanic eruption in between. With access to the most extensive set of historical weather records available to date, Steve has personally designed and integrated a proprietary system that gives him the ability to quickly locate and manipulate weather data as far back as the 1800's. As one local Meteorologist put it, "Steve has fast access to historical weather data that is needed for media, agriculture, business, personal, historical and other climatological needs. He can quickly manipulate the data in many different ways. His forecasts are also quite accurate, especially at longer lead times." Steve also provides local storm assessments, narratives and weather presentations to the general public, as requested. In his spare time, Steve enjoys spending time with his family, the outdoors, vacationing at his family's coastal cabin and just relaxing! By the way, do you like your weather on the "extreme" side? So does Steve! Whether it is collecting damage assessment data & photos after record setting 125 mph winds at the coast in December 2007, being one of the first on the scene after the January 2008 Vancouver tornado, or feeling (literally) the awesome power of 100 mph wind gusts at Oregon's Crown Point in January 2010, Steve has experienced it all! As Steve says, "don't just love weather, live weather!" Check out Steve's personal weather website at: http://www.piercevideo.com/weather.shtml