All Politics is Local

Internal Long poll shows two-point race in WA-3

An internal poll from Carolyn Long’s campaign shows the Democrat trailing the incumbent representative by just two points in Washington’s Third Congressional District.

According to the results of the poll, released Monday, Long has the support of 47 percent of voters in the district. The Republican and five-term incumbent, Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler, had 49 percent. Four percent of the voters polled were undecided.

The poll was conducted by GQR, a national polling firm based out of Washington, D.C., who surveyed 400 likely general election voters between Sept. 24 and Sept. 26.

The poll also showed that Democratic nominee Joe Biden and Republican President Donald Trump are virtually tied — Trump has the support of 48 percent of WA-3 voters, Biden has 47 percent, and 6 percent remain undecided.

Take it with a grain of salt. It’s an internal campaign poll that also has a margin of error of 4.9 percent, which means the actual vote count could look drastically different on Election Day.

In a media release, Long’s campaign manager, Abby Olmstead, touted the poll as evidence that Long and her comprehensive plans to tackle corruption and COVID-19 were resonating with voters.

“The campaign to represent southwest Washington in Congress is more competitive than ever — and the stakes have never been higher,” Olmstead said.

Long and Herrera Beutler will face off for the second time on Nov. 3. In 2018, Long handed Herrera Beutler — who’d won in 2012, 2014 and 2016 by more than 20 percent — a five-point race, the closest of the congresswoman’s career.

Long’s hoping to build on the momentum and name recognition she built in the midterm to unseat the incumbent. August’s primary election, however, showed a disappointing return for Long, especially compared to 2018. Primary voters in WA-3 favored Herrera Beutler over Long by a 16.5 percent margin. In the 2018 primary Long — then a newcomer to politics — trailed the congresswoman by only 6.8 percent.

The two candidates will hold their first debate at 2 p.m. on Friday, Oct. 9. The virtual event will be broadcast live on CVTV.org.

Calley Hair

Calley Hair

I write about city and federal politics. Find me at twitter.com/CalleyNHair