Is El Nino Coming or Will It Remain Neutral This Winter?

The latest ENSO forecast models are out and they continue to show that we will be very close to seeing an El Nino this winter. NOAA expects that we will meet El Nino thresholds by the end of this month. El Nino is marked by warmer than normal ocean sea surface temps in the tropical Pacific near the equator. La Nina is the opposite where we see cooler than normal sea surface temps. There are also years where we do not see either and that is known as neutral or sometimes called La Nada by some in the weather world. If we continue in the neutral range then we could indeed see a pretty active winter. The valley can see snow in neutral winters. 2008/09 was a neutral winter that trended on the cool and snowy side. We will have to wait and see what happens in the months to come. Hey, speaking of wait, you don’t have to wait for this next exciting bit of information. Here is the latest Oregon AMS chapter update. Please share this information with others and put these important dates on your calendar now.

Dr. Mantua’s PDO talk is NEXT WEDNESDAY in Portland —

We are very excited to host Dr. Nate Mantua (University of Washington) next Wednesday, September 12th at 7pm at OMSI. His talk on the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) will be excellent! Please make every attempt to support Dr. Mantua by coming to hear his talk and inviting others as well. Parking and admittance is 100% free! For complete meeting details, see:


Do you want to be the first to hear the exciting news? We have just finalized the lineup for both of these great meetings in October and November. We will unveil all of the details, including guest speakers and guest forecasters at next weeks OMSI meeting with Dr. Mantua! Hint — you are going to really enjoy what we have put together for you guys! Hope to see you all next Wednesday at OMSI for the unveiling of these two great meeting lineups! For all the latest Oregon AMS meetings, see:

Stay tuned!
Steve Pierce, President
Oregon Chapter of the American Meteorological Society (AMS)

Don’t forget — you can now get my latest in depth weather and climate updates via Facebook. Send me a friend request at and I will add you in. Don’t forget to bookmark this blog at for my latest thoughts. Are you interested in weather? Why not join the single largest chapter of the American Meteorological Society (AMS) in the country with 165 fellow members? We host eight monthly weather meetings from September through June. All of these meetings are open to the public and 100% free! We are always looking for new members. For additional Oregon AMS chapter meeting details please see:

Steve Pierce

Steve Pierce

Steve Pierce is widely known as Oregon and Washington's "go-to-guy" when it comes to fast, accurate historical meteorological research and forecasts. Steve is currently the President of the Oregon Chapter of the American Meteorological Society (AMS). Steve is also recognized as a regional weather commentator and blogger who can be heard on local radio stations and seen in print media outlets across the Pacific Northwest. His Weather Blog is hosted by the Columbian Newspaper in Vancouver. Check it out! He is a third generation resident of Vancouver, Washington and holds a degree in Communications. Both sets of Steve's grandparents migrated to Vancouver during World War II. One set traveled from Lenox, Iowa to work in the Kaiser Shipyards supporting the war effort. The other set came to Vancouver from Olympia, Washington to work as educators for the rapidly expanding Vancouver School District. When the war was over, both sets of grandparents decided to stay in Vancouver and continue raising their families, as did thousands of other families at the time. Those who are most familiar with Steve can attest to the fact that weather is his true passion. His love for "all things weather" began at the age of 7 when Mt. St. Helens erupted in 1980. He was fascinated with which direction the ash plumes were headed. Then came the very powerful windstorm of Friday, November 13, 1981, also referred to as the "Friday the 13th" storm. This was the strongest storm to hit the Portland / Vancouver area since the great Columbus Day Storm of 1962! At age 11, he was asked to publish an extended weather forecast for his elementary school's weekly newsletter. In the 1980's, at age 14, Steve was the youngest of KGW-TV's local "weather watchers" and would phone in his daily Vancouver weather stats to then television meteorologist Jim Little for use on-air. Steve has lived through all of the major Pacific Northwest weather events of the past 30 years, and then some. The most notable events include; the bitterly cold winter of 1978-1979, the record setting snow storms of January 1980, the summer heat wave of August 1981, the windstorms of November 1981 and December 1995, the severe arctic blast of February 1989, the record flood of February 1996, the historic ice storm of January 2004, the Vancouver tornado of January 2008 and the record setting snow storm of Christmas 2008. Not to mention every Mt. St. Helens volcanic eruption in between. With access to the most extensive set of historical weather records available to date, Steve has personally designed and integrated a proprietary system that gives him the ability to quickly locate and manipulate weather data as far back as the 1800's. As one local Meteorologist put it, "Steve has fast access to historical weather data that is needed for media, agriculture, business, personal, historical and other climatological needs. He can quickly manipulate the data in many different ways. His forecasts are also quite accurate, especially at longer lead times." Steve also provides local storm assessments, narratives and weather presentations to the general public, as requested. In his spare time, Steve enjoys spending time with his family, the outdoors, vacationing at his family's coastal cabin and just relaxing! By the way, do you like your weather on the "extreme" side? So does Steve! Whether it is collecting damage assessment data & photos after record setting 125 mph winds at the coast in December 2007, being one of the first on the scene after the January 2008 Vancouver tornado, or feeling (literally) the awesome power of 100 mph wind gusts at Oregon's Crown Point in January 2010, Steve has experienced it all! As Steve says, "don't just love weather, live weather!" Check out Steve's personal weather website at:

Scroll to top