Is El Nino Coming or Will It Remain Neutral This Winter?
The latest ENSO forecast models are out and they continue to show that we will be very close to seeing an El Nino this winter. NOAA expects that we will meet El Nino thresholds by the end of this month. El Nino is marked by warmer than normal ocean sea surface temps in the tropical Pacific near the equator. La Nina is the opposite where we see cooler than normal sea surface temps. There are also years where we do not see either and that is known as neutral or sometimes called La Nada by some in the weather world. If we continue in the neutral range then we could indeed see a pretty active winter. The valley can see snow in neutral winters. 2008/09 was a neutral winter that trended on the cool and snowy side. We will have to wait and see what happens in the months to come. Hey, speaking of wait, you don’t have to wait for this next exciting bit of information. Here is the latest Oregon AMS chapter update. Please share this information with others and put these important dates on your calendar now.
Dr. Mantua’s PDO talk is NEXT WEDNESDAY in Portland —
We are very excited to host Dr. Nate Mantua (University of Washington) next Wednesday, September 12th at 7pm at OMSI. His talk on the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) will be excellent! Please make every attempt to support Dr. Mantua by coming to hear his talk and inviting others as well. Parking and admittance is 100% free! For complete meeting details, see: http://www.ametsoc.org/chapters/oregon/
COLUMBUS DAY STORM 50th ANNIVERSARY COMMEMORATION AND 20th ANNUAL WINTER WEATHER FORECAST CONFERENCE UPDATES —
Do you want to be the first to hear the exciting news? We have just finalized the lineup for both of these great meetings in October and November. We will unveil all of the details, including guest speakers and guest forecasters at next weeks OMSI meeting with Dr. Mantua! Hint — you are going to really enjoy what we have put together for you guys! Hope to see you all next Wednesday at OMSI for the unveiling of these two great meeting lineups! For all the latest Oregon AMS meetings, see: http://www.ametsoc.org/chapters/oregon/
Steve Pierce, President
Oregon Chapter of the American Meteorological Society (AMS)
Don’t forget — you can now get my latest in depth weather and climate updates via Facebook. Send me a friend request at http://www.facebook.com/stevepiercevancouver and I will add you in. Don’t forget to bookmark this blog at http://www.columbian.com/weblogs/weather for my latest thoughts. Are you interested in weather? Why not join the single largest chapter of the American Meteorological Society (AMS) in the country with 165 fellow members? We host eight monthly weather meetings from September through June. All of these meetings are open to the public and 100% free! We are always looking for new members. For additional Oregon AMS chapter meeting details please see: http://www.ametsoc.org/chapters/oregon