Coldest Weather of Winter Poised to Invade Pacific Northwest w/ Snow Likely
Coldest Weather of Winter Poised to Invade Pacific Northwest w/ Snow Likely
After six weeks of mundane weather, the coldest air mass so far this winter is scheduled to arrive Saturday night across much of the Pacific Northwest, just in time time for the holiday weekend. The system in question will be arriving from the Gulf of Alaska and will push snow levels to the valley floor at times beginning Saturday night and lasting though at least Monday. This system has its origins in Alaska where temperatures have been well below normal as of late. At this point it does not appear as though this will qualify as a true Pacific Northwest “arctic blast” (temperatures at or below 32 degrees for daytime highs west of the Cascades) but overnight lows will likely fall below freezing across many locations Saturday night through Monday.
Temperatures will fall quickly after sunset on Saturday and any precipitation associated with this system will likely fall as snow or a rain/snow mix all the way down to the valley floor. Sunday and Monday will feel raw outside, with high temperatures in the upper 30’s west of the Cascades and snow showers likely. The big question remains, how much snow will fall and where? A pattern like this is difficult to predict, as precipitation amounts will be showery in nature and thus hit-and-miss. The hills above 500ft are likely to see the best chances for accumulating snow along with other snow prone locations. If a more consolidated line of precipitation moves across the area Saturday night, nearly everyone could see accumulating snow, albeit light.
All eyes then turn to early next week. With plenty of cold air in place, another system will likely arrive Monday and Tuesday from the west. This system has the potential to bring a more widespread snow event to the valley floor for a period of time before changing over to rain. Models are up in the air right now on which scenario will play out early next week. One model (the GFS or Global Forecasting System) suggests a quick change over from snow to rain, while the Euro (European) is colder and wetter, suggesting that snow would stick around for most of Monday into Tuesday on the valley floor, before finally changing over to rain. The forecast for early next week is very much up in the air at this point and will come into better focus over the weekend. Travel will likely become impacted Saturday night through Tuesday across many of the mountain passes and quite possibly the lowlands, depending on which model solution ultimately verifies.
Stay tuned!
Steve Pierce
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Steve Pierce
Steve Pierce is widely known as Oregon and Washington's "go-to-guy" when it comes to fast, accurate historical meteorological research and forecasts. Steve is currently the President of the Oregon Chapter of the American Meteorological Society (AMS). Steve is also recognized as a regional weather commentator and blogger who can be heard on local radio stations and seen in print media outlets across the Pacific Northwest. His Weather Blog is hosted by the Columbian Newspaper in Vancouver. Check it out! He is a third generation resident of Vancouver, Washington and holds a degree in Communications. Both sets of Steve's grandparents migrated to Vancouver during World War II. One set traveled from Lenox, Iowa to work in the Kaiser Shipyards supporting the war effort. The other set came to Vancouver from Olympia, Washington to work as educators for the rapidly expanding Vancouver School District. When the war was over, both sets of grandparents decided to stay in Vancouver and continue raising their families, as did thousands of other families at the time. Those who are most familiar with Steve can attest to the fact that weather is his true passion. His love for "all things weather" began at the age of 7 when Mt. St. Helens erupted in 1980. He was fascinated with which direction the ash plumes were headed. Then came the very powerful windstorm of Friday, November 13, 1981, also referred to as the "Friday the 13th" storm. This was the strongest storm to hit the Portland / Vancouver area since the great Columbus Day Storm of 1962! At age 11, he was asked to publish an extended weather forecast for his elementary school's weekly newsletter. In the 1980's, at age 14, Steve was the youngest of KGW-TV's local "weather watchers" and would phone in his daily Vancouver weather stats to then television meteorologist Jim Little for use on-air. Steve has lived through all of the major Pacific Northwest weather events of the past 30 years, and then some. The most notable events include; the bitterly cold winter of 1978-1979, the record setting snow storms of January 1980, the summer heat wave of August 1981, the windstorms of November 1981 and December 1995, the severe arctic blast of February 1989, the record flood of February 1996, the historic ice storm of January 2004, the Vancouver tornado of January 2008 and the record setting snow storm of Christmas 2008. Not to mention every Mt. St. Helens volcanic eruption in between. With access to the most extensive set of historical weather records available to date, Steve has personally designed and integrated a proprietary system that gives him the ability to quickly locate and manipulate weather data as far back as the 1800's. As one local Meteorologist put it, "Steve has fast access to historical weather data that is needed for media, agriculture, business, personal, historical and other climatological needs. He can quickly manipulate the data in many different ways. His forecasts are also quite accurate, especially at longer lead times." Steve also provides local storm assessments, narratives and weather presentations to the general public, as requested. In his spare time, Steve enjoys spending time with his family, the outdoors, vacationing at his family's coastal cabin and just relaxing! By the way, do you like your weather on the "extreme" side? So does Steve! Whether it is collecting damage assessment data & photos after record setting 125 mph winds at the coast in December 2007, being one of the first on the scene after the January 2008 Vancouver tornado, or feeling (literally) the awesome power of 100 mph wind gusts at Oregon's Crown Point in January 2010, Steve has experienced it all! As Steve says, "don't just love weather, live weather!" Check out Steve's personal weather website at: http://www.piercevideo.com/weather.shtml