An Arctic Tease or The Real Deal?
Good evening. Hope you all had a good weekend. Well, as they say in the weather community, “let the model riding begin.” For those who track computer weather model guidance, this is the time of the year when there can be a lot of sleepless nights as we await the many different models to come in. Most models update two times a day, with a few more updating as often as four times a day. What I call the “big three” models include the GFS (Global Forecast System), the ECMWF (European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting) better known as the “Euro” and finally the Canadian, also known as the GEM. So, why all this talk about model riding today? Well, as many of you have already seen, at least two of these “big three” are showing what could be an unseasonably cold air mass sliding down over the Pacific Northwest sometime next weekend (Nov 13th-ish).
Let me note that it is still to early to take any of this “to the bank,” but the one model I personally feel is the best (the Euro) is getting colder with each run over the past 3 days. Then there is the GFS and Euro Ensembles. These also show a trend to the colder solution of the Euro operational and Canadian. I took a look back at the model guidance from last Novembers arctic outbreak that struck just before Thanksgiving and there are similarities to what I am seeing in the models again this year. But that does not mean the result will be the same. If I were making a forecast tonight, I would not jump on board with Ozzy Osborne’s “Crazy Train” just yet, but if these solutions are still showing this by Wednesday, I will likely be punching my ticket at the station and getting on board. We shall see how it all plays out in the coming few days. Check back here for updates. It could be nothing or as I said at the big Winter Weather Conference in Portland last weekend, it could be a “November to remember.” Only time will tell.
By the way, here are the links to the models I am referring to:
Euro loop (via Mark Nelsen’s site) – http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/Models/ecmwf500mb_ecmwf.html
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