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Winter Weather Forecasts Posted

Is it a trick or a treat? Either way, La Nina is back and she may be handing out plenty of adverse weather across the Pacific Northwest again this winter. For the second year in a row, a standing room only crowd of 365 attendees descended on the Oregon Museum of Science and Industry (OMSI) in Portland over the weekend to hear regional weather experts prognosticate the winter ahead. Some attendees traveled from as far away as 200 miles in order to hear the details. All five forecasters who presented at the conference were in nearly complete agreement that La Nina is likely to bring above average snowfall to the Cascades again this winter, as well as an increased chance for lowland snowfall in the valley. Last winter featured two notable cold spells and low elevation snow events in late November and late February. It also featured lowland flooding along the Sandy river and record setting snowfall in the mountains.

Will those kinds of conditions repeat again this winter? Most forecasters played it safe with a broad-brush La Nina forecast, which calls for cooler and wetter than normal conditions across the Pacific Northwest. However, a few forecasters went out even further, suggesting that February may end up being the coldest month of the winter, with the best chances for low elevation snow and perhaps an arctic outbreak. Meteorologist Jim Little, who presented Saturday at OMSI, pointed out that the best analog (similar) year to the current trend is the winter of 2008/2009. That winter featured 24″ of snow at the Portland International Airport, including a new record for the most snow ever received in the month of December. Nearly 10″ of snow was still on the ground on Christmas day 2008. Winter of 2008/2009 recorded the most snow of any Portland winter since 1968. Little also pointed out that analog years do not guarantee an exact repeat again this year, however odds are increased over that of a non-analog year. As billed, the crowd was also serenaded by former Oregon state climatologist George Taylor and his self-proclaimed “La Nina” song, strummed to the tune of “my girl” by the Temptations.”

Winter Weather Forecasts, Videos and Pictures

To view all of the winter weather forecasts that were presented at OMSI, please see: http://www.ametsoc.org/chapters/oregon/Minutes/2011/2011_10_29_Meeting/2011_10_29_Minutes.html

To view a great 2 min 40 sec video put together by Dave Tragethon, featuring George Taylor’s “La Nina” song, along with various forecaster highlight interviews, please see: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pRhst9…

To view a photo slideshow of the conference, courtesy of Tyler Mode, please see: http://weathercrazy.smugmug.com/Events/Oregon-AMS-Winter-Wx-Meeting/19821682_x6kGkQ#1558124264_HMPVGVn

Next up — The Oregon Chapter of the American Meteorological Society (AMS) will host its next regular monthly meeting on November 29th from 7-9pm at OMSI in Portland. November’s topic will be on anthropogenic (human-caused) global warming. Come hear former Oregon state climatologist George Taylor, meteorologist Chuck Wiese, and physicist Gordon Fulks, PhD, explore what they believe are the many problems with the theory of catastrophic human-caused climate change. They will also present their own forecast(s) for the next decade, century, millennium and beyond. There will be a Q & A session at the conclusion. This meeting will be free and open to the general public. The media is also welcome. We are expecting another packed house, so please arrive early for the best seating.

Don’t forget — get my latest weather updates now via Facebook. Send me a friend request and I will add you in. See: http://www.facebook.com/stevepiercevancouver

Stay tuned!

Steve Pierce
President – Oregon Chapter of the American Meteorological Society
stevejpierce@comcast.net
http://www.piercevideo.com/weather.shtml
http://www.ametsoc.org/chapters/oregon/

Steve Pierce

Steve Pierce

Steve Pierce is widely known as Oregon and Washington's "go-to-guy" when it comes to fast, accurate historical meteorological research and forecasts. Steve is currently the President of the Oregon Chapter of the American Meteorological Society (AMS). Steve is also recognized as a regional weather commentator and blogger who can be heard on local radio stations and seen in print media outlets across the Pacific Northwest. His Weather Blog is hosted by the Columbian Newspaper in Vancouver. Check it out! He is a third generation resident of Vancouver, Washington and holds a degree in Communications. Both sets of Steve's grandparents migrated to Vancouver during World War II. One set traveled from Lenox, Iowa to work in the Kaiser Shipyards supporting the war effort. The other set came to Vancouver from Olympia, Washington to work as educators for the rapidly expanding Vancouver School District. When the war was over, both sets of grandparents decided to stay in Vancouver and continue raising their families, as did thousands of other families at the time. Those who are most familiar with Steve can attest to the fact that weather is his true passion. His love for "all things weather" began at the age of 7 when Mt. St. Helens erupted in 1980. He was fascinated with which direction the ash plumes were headed. Then came the very powerful windstorm of Friday, November 13, 1981, also referred to as the "Friday the 13th" storm. This was the strongest storm to hit the Portland / Vancouver area since the great Columbus Day Storm of 1962! At age 11, he was asked to publish an extended weather forecast for his elementary school's weekly newsletter. In the 1980's, at age 14, Steve was the youngest of KGW-TV's local "weather watchers" and would phone in his daily Vancouver weather stats to then television meteorologist Jim Little for use on-air. Steve has lived through all of the major Pacific Northwest weather events of the past 30 years, and then some. The most notable events include; the bitterly cold winter of 1978-1979, the record setting snow storms of January 1980, the summer heat wave of August 1981, the windstorms of November 1981 and December 1995, the severe arctic blast of February 1989, the record flood of February 1996, the historic ice storm of January 2004, the Vancouver tornado of January 2008 and the record setting snow storm of Christmas 2008. Not to mention every Mt. St. Helens volcanic eruption in between. With access to the most extensive set of historical weather records available to date, Steve has personally designed and integrated a proprietary system that gives him the ability to quickly locate and manipulate weather data as far back as the 1800's. As one local Meteorologist put it, "Steve has fast access to historical weather data that is needed for media, agriculture, business, personal, historical and other climatological needs. He can quickly manipulate the data in many different ways. His forecasts are also quite accurate, especially at longer lead times." Steve also provides local storm assessments, narratives and weather presentations to the general public, as requested. In his spare time, Steve enjoys spending time with his family, the outdoors, vacationing at his family's coastal cabin and just relaxing! By the way, do you like your weather on the "extreme" side? So does Steve! Whether it is collecting damage assessment data & photos after record setting 125 mph winds at the coast in December 2007, being one of the first on the scene after the January 2008 Vancouver tornado, or feeling (literally) the awesome power of 100 mph wind gusts at Oregon's Crown Point in January 2010, Steve has experienced it all! As Steve says, "don't just love weather, live weather!" Check out Steve's personal weather website at: http://www.piercevideo.com/weather.shtml