I’m not sure I’ve tracked another away game that Portland has had in the near past that has so much going for it in terms of going in there and taking 3 points… a curse?  not likely… These are two teams going in different directions and the outcome from this game needs – really needs to be a statement from Portland.

To be honest I didn’t think I would offer this up very much this year but an away point is just that – one point – and to secure playoff chances there need to be games (on the road) where one point is just not good enough – in this case, in this place, one point is just not good enough.  Portland need to go in and stamp their style of football on DC United…

So on to my routine…

RFK Stadium – A Football stadium for sure and the type of football most Americans enjoy.

What we won’t see on the 25th of May are 60 minutes of football that take 4 hours to play, tons of commercials, sideline cheerleaders, a packed stadium, sideline coolers full of Gatorade, timeouts, player swaps based upon ball location, headphones on coaches heads, 45 players on the sideline, clock stoppages, replay booth officials, red flags from Head Coaches complaining that an ‘official got it wrong’, yard markers, and 7 (count them) SEVEN Referee’s.  No Umpire, no Head Linesman, no Line Judge, no Field Judge, no Side Judge, and no Back Judge…

What we will see is 90 minutes (a real 90 minutes) of non-stop (one break), in your face, full speed, full contact, full-on soccer with no replays, played by 22 players whose every technical weakness is exposed to the world and where one error can cost a game.

There will be one Referee who runs the pitch with one on each sideline to track the ball and sometimes wave their flag when a foul might occur near-by.  The only other official in the game has the difficult duty of tracking minutes for added time and raising a number board to allow three, count them three, substitutions throughout the 90 odd minutes of play.  Did I say that the Referee, like the players is also totally exposed in showing every weakness they have in making a mistake that might impact the outcome of a game?

So tug your boots on, tie up your laces, cross that white line and kick some arse Timbers!

Weather – Sunny, with some wind perhaps and the low seventies – probably a bit humid.  So nothing really special to add here other than the surface is “Prescription Athletic Turf” – for the common folk that is simply called ‘grass’…

Standings – Major Simplistic here…  DC United are at the bottom of the Eastern Conference Standings while Portland currently sits in Third – games in hand set aside…  History between these two teams means nothing – as Simplistic noted before they are different teams and it’s a different year where Portland are a different side on the road…

Olsen will be preparing to play the Timbers like this was his most important game of the year… and for any head coach the next game up is the most important…  He will not want to see his team slack off after a worthy draw against Sporting KC last week…  the same can be said for Porter; going in they are both thinking the same things but looking to execute them in different ways.

Formation – I saw on Stumptownfooty, that their local pundit offered up that their team would probably go with a 4-2-3-1… that’s one formation they might work to but they’ve gone out there in a flat-back 4-4-2, a diamond 4-4-2 and most recently a 4-4-1-1.

And after reviewing their formations in Home versus Away games I would offer that a 4-2-3-1 is probably the worst formation they could run at home.  The only occasion where they ran a 4-2-3-1 at home is when they got thrashed 4-nil by Houston.  In their other games running the 4-2-3-1 (Away) they lost 2-nil to Houston and drew nil-nil to New York.

A more successful formation (based upon their home and away tendencies) is a flat-back 4-4-2.  They used that formation against Real Salt Lake and won 1-nil and when running it against Philadelphia they scored 2 goals but gave up 3.

So while there may be some interesting trends in their attacking system/formation the most consistent part of this team has been their defense… it has been terrible.  In their seven game ‘beaten’ streak they conceded 17 goals and during that time they ran four at the back every single game…

So regardless of what attacking formation or system Olsen used it really didn’t seem to matter a whole lot.

Goals Scored – My usual offering for your consideration on who the shot takers and targets are relative to their location on the pitch…

SHOT TAKERS AND TARGETS FOR DC UNITED

The ever present and dangerous Dwayne De Rosario is the obvious leader here in shots taken and shots on goal – the little number 7 can pop up on the right or left and usually settles in behind for free-kicks.  Chara and Will Johnson should have some good fun sharing marking responsibilities with De Rosario.

As for Pajoy; odds are he will start but Townsend did get a look in the other day as did Augusto; if Olsen opens up in a 4-4-2 I would imagine we see Pajoy pair up with Townsend but others may know better…

As for the big guys in the back; McDonald has pedigree with his head and is fourth on the team in shots taken; pretty impressive for a center-back and it says a lot on how much of a target he really is on set-pieces… Kah or Baptiste will have their hands full but with McDonald only being 6’1″ height should not be an issue – reaction time will be…

Curved Air – Much of their ball movement from Square 1 has to do with whether or not the game is at home or on the road.  In all six matches (2 each against SKC, NYRB and Columbus) they played far more short balls from Square 1 at home than on the road.  And during one road game against SKC they played just one ball short; all other 38 balls from Square 1 were played long.

As for the other teams they’ve played to date there is only one team (Real Salt Lake at home) where they attempted more short balls than long ones… with that overall trend I would offer DC United will probably look to start the game by playing short and then if the scoreline changes or Portland presses higher up the pitch they will look to put more balls further down range.

Here’s how the Square 1 distribution looks from a Home and Away perspective…

DC UNITED SHORT BALLS VS LONG BALLS FROM SQUARE 1

Some thoughts…

For home games there is a clear tendency to try and play short balls from the back with the intent to try and control the game through possession; the odd ones out appear to be against teams (Real Salt Lake and Sporting KC) who are themselves very good possession based teams.

So there could be two schools of thought; begin the game with the intent to control and possess the ball or ‘begin’ the game with the intent to clog the midfield and disrupt play.  Hard to say but the first 2 fifteen minute increments should offer up what approach Olsen will try.

He already knows Portland can score goals and quickly at that – a cautious approach looking for that set-piece (the approach used by Vancouver) may be the approach taken by DC United…

Possession – Some basic info before climbing into some detail…  DC United average 45 minutes of possession per game – so they win some possession battles and they lose some possession battles.  Oddly enough in the seven game “beaten” streak they won the battle of possession five times… anecdotal information that again confirms the lack of correlation between winning points and winning possession.

So before offering up an estimate here’s a diagram for your consideration on how DC United have performed (statistical wise) in Away games versus those played in RFK…

DC UNITED CROSSES AWAY VS HOME

Now some thoughts…

Clearly DC United leverage the use of crossing much more at home than on the road; we already know that the formation doesn’t seem to matter that much so what about the players?

Over the course of the season their most prolific crossers down their right wing are Kyle Porter and Chris Korb; and given info available to date it would appear that Korb overlaps regularly down their right side.  As for their left side; indications are that they don’t offer up as many down the left but when they do it is again, a fullback (Woolard).

With this being a home game I would expect them to be balanced with a slight lean towards the right (our left); Harrington and Wallace should be in for a busy night and Harrington will really need to pay attention to their rookie Porter.  We saw last week that speed is huge and given Porter’s volume of crosses this year he seems pretty good with his boot as well.

Of course there is always the turtle shell game; against Sporting they stayed home quite a bit and got a draw; sometimes when a team is struggling offensively a draw is just as good as a win.

With that here’s their overall Attacking Possession with Purpose data points to date (Away and at Home) plus a rough Estimate on how things might play out on the 25th…

DC UNITED AWAY HOME AND ESTIMATED A-PWP

In taking a few minutes to digest this note that there is a clear difference in the overall attacking strategy for DC United when they play away from RFK and when they are home.

For me Defensive (Opponent) Clearances is the biggest indicator showing the overall lack of aggression on the road versus at home; we don’t see that with Portland so these guys could go toe-to-toe like what occurred in Kansas City but I don’t see Olsen pushing the game with so few points in the Eastern Conference table; for DC United, for now, one point is a huge point and a confidence builder.

Note like most other teams encountered this year the tables tend to balance themselves out as you get closer to goals scored.  There is a marked difference between these two teams though; Portland average 15 shots taken while DC only average 10.  Perhaps a reasonable scoreline for this game is DC United 1 Portland Timbers 2?

Defense – Throughout the entire season to date DC United have been pretty consistent in who starts in the back-four.  Korb and Woolard have been their Fullbacks while McDonald and Jakovic have been center-backs.  Ethan White has stepped in and has started two games so we could see a slight change there.

In there most recent game against SKC it was White getting the head nod over McDonald – I haven’t been able to confirm if he is injured and indications are that he isn’t so perhaps the move bringing in White was to try and shore up the back-four more defensively?

However sliced DC United have not had great success in getting shutouts; teams get plenty of shots taken, shots on goal and goals scored against DC United… I would offer it is reasonable that Portland will score at least one goal this game…

Wild Things – Jekyll and Hyde…   check this out.

DC UNITED FOULS CONCEDED AND YELLOW CARDS

As with almost every other data point viewed prior to this game there is a clear difference between how this team behaves at home versus on the road.  In five games on the road they have received 10 Yellow cards and average 3.5 more fouls than at home.

This is yet another indicator of a stop-start tactic to slow the game down and try to by time while looking to clog the midfield; no doubt this team would have taken exactly the same approach as New England or Montreal if they were visiting JELD-WEN.

So how about their home games??? In their win they fouled Real Salt Lake 17 times with one Yellow card; that game was a 1-nil victory where they ran that 4-4-2; otherwise there fouls conceded and Yellow cards are lower than their games on the road…  does that translate to them being timid; likely not – I would expect Kitchen and DeLeon to be very aggressive in looking to shut down Nagbe and Valeri.

Their co-leaders in fouls conceded (17) are Pajoy and Kitchen, fouls from Pajoy probably don’t matter so much given his location on the pitch but fouls by Kitchen, and Caleb Porters knowledge of his game, might be a weak link that Valeri and Nagbe look to expose???

As for Yellow cards, again Kitchen gets the gold badge for aggression (3) while Pajoy and Jakovic are next up with 2 each.  Given that there do seem to be some indications that a free kick or two (in the attacking third) might be garnered for Portland sometime during the 90 minutes of play.

Substitutes – I have no clue for DC United – there are a number of players who have 100-300 minutes; Riley might make an appearance anywhere (he has played defender, midfielder and forward).  If not starting Saragosa might be a defensive replacement while Augusto might be an extra attacker if Pajoy and Townsend start up top…

With respect to Portland; we have seen Porter make substitutions based upon score-line as well as ‘like-for-like’ just to replace tired legs.  I am hopeful we continue to see subs get more playing time as this season progresses; Wallace, Johnson & Johnson and Ricketts can get called up for international duty and with those four guys being starters quality stand-ins are needed and you don’t get quality stand-ins without giving them due care and attention in first team games…

From what I understand Portland have used the least amount of players in first team matches as anyone else this year barring Houston???  With 34 regular season games, plus cup games and other friendlies these guys will get tired as the hot weather rolls in…  Zizzo and Piq and Miller and Kocic and Alhassan and Zemanski have all had regular time prior to this year; those guys along with Valencia will need to be sharp this year for Portland to make a good run at the Playoffs and beyond…

In closing – It’s not a curse to project a win… these guys should do well in DC and it should be a very entertaining game…

Set-pieces are wicked – especially against teams who have the majority of control in a game.

Through balls and speed also set the conditions for counterattacking goals.

Make no mistake DC United players are professional and unless Olsen has lost the locker room those guys will work hard to get three points.  No games are easy and Portland will have to work harder and smarter to get three points.

Portland are a strong attacking team based upon information to date.. .but statistics don’t win games – players do.   Complacency can kick your arse and ‘ground you’ – here’s hoping there were some really good takeaways from that Vancouver game as Portland travel to DC United…

Next Up Match Analysis…

I don’t say that tongue in cheek – there are some indicators in this game that may be cause for concern but more later.  For now bask in the sun of another point, on the road, and an unbeaten string hitting double digits.  These players and these coaches continue to repay “the fans” as this season continues to unfold!

Before walking through my routine I would suggest you take in a very good match report from Kip Kesgard with the Oregonian and another fine offering from theaxepdx…

With that here’s my match analysis working from my match preview in particular order…

BC Place – 19,823 fans turned their 39,646 beady eyes to this game with anticipation and most walked away disappointed; not unlike Timbers fans early last year when Mattocks scored a late equalizer on a long ball in JELD-WEN.  The days of the past now haunt Vancouver – not Portland – as Valencia turned a last ditch long ball from Will Johnson to a stunning (easy-peezy-lemon-squeezy) equalizer…

Weather – a non issue this game though if you read the article from theaxepdx you should note that the pitch did have some impact in this game…

Standings – two views here; Portland has dropped to third in the standings (game in hand) in the Western Conference while also (very early days) slides atop to lead for that chase in retaining the Cascadia Cup to Portland.  Not remarkable for anything more than that at this time – too many games yet to play (in both) and too many points to be had or lost as well…  consistency in grabbing away points is a good thing – Portland got an away point and that’s good.

Formation – As opined in my match preview Vancouver would open in a 4-3-3… if you read my offerings you’ll know why.  Also offered up in my preview was the potential for a tactical change given a change in scoreline – indeed that was the case; not only for Vancouver but for Portland…

But bottom line up front here was slow play from the get-go; there were changes to be sure but the initial tactics got what Rennie wanted – an early goal and a chance to secure three points in back-to-back games against Western Conference foes.

Goals Scored - A cracker – Sanvezzo hit a screaming curler that could be a goal of the week contender; superbly placed free kick that was a dead give-away in my view.  Rickett’s position, albeit somewhat shaded left to start, was more central when Sanvezzo put his boot to the ball but not central enough; even with that early adjustment Rickett’s wasn’t going to get there.  It’s no wonder Sanvezzo leads the team in shots taken and now goals scored…

So Sanvezzo not only can offer up great free-kicks he also showed his vision with a nice pass to Koffie after seeing the overaggressive reaction by the back-four and central midfield players…  overplay is what got Portland in trouble here – alas hindsight is 20-20 but at least one person marking the space atop the box would have better suited than four Timbers players trying to surround the ball.

That is somewhat harsh but in reality too many players closed on Sanvezzo instead of marking an area where he might release the ball.  Koffie duly did his job in getting free and netting that quick reposte to Will Johnson’s worthy Penalty Kick…

Last but not least – Valencia – in case you missed it he was +3 going into this game and is now +4… last minute goals by substitutes are why substitutes are brought on.  Wallace had a healthy +/- rating before gaining starting minutes on the left wing and Valencia is doing the same.

He adds a worthy dimension to this team – he has foot skills and pace and can (and has) tracked back.  It was his nifty display of quick touches in traffic that got him that goal.  I would hope that Valencia continues to garner more playing time; we saw an increase in playing time for Wallace as his +/- was strong – it seems reasonable to me that the chemistry brought to the pitch by Valencia will result in the same for him.

Tidbit… In case you missed it Sal Zizzo scored the equalizer (Reserves) on Sunday and continues to gain match fitness; so there are two quality players in the pen waiting to get on if Nagbe isn’t ready and Porter wants to run a slightly different look than with Kalif…

Curved Air - No diagrams on this one just a few observations.  As again offered in my match preview Vancouver played far more long balls (24) than short ones (6) and Portland played more short balls (16) than long ones (9).  While those are the stats it was clear in watching the game that the tactics of those stats changed as the scoreline changed and time drew down…

To confirm; after the red card to Futty, Rickett’s played all his remaining goal kicks long and from the opposite end Knighton played all his goal kicks short…  so while one overall pattern was obvious to start with that pattern had completely swapped places in the later stages of the game.

Possession – Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF)… here’s how the Attacking Possession with Purpose (A-PWP) efficiency rating stacked up for Portland and Vancouver…

A-PWP Attacking Efficiency Portland Timbes vs Opponents To Date

You may be surprised (perhaps not?) that Vancouver actually dominated much of this game.  If previous analysis has been reasonable then this conclusion remains so as well.  Why?

Well even though Portland had more ‘possession of the ball’ that possession lacked efficiency and effectiveness in the final third.  Portland penetrated more, created more and only through the grace of a long ball (direct attack) in the final minutes did they equalize; otherwise Vancouver did more with less…

Even more ironic is that the first attack leading to the Penalty kick goal came in the one fifteen minute stretch (seen below) where Portland had the fewest penetrations and least amount of goal scoring opportunities… and no need to belabor it too much the other goal game via “route 1″…  so yes Portland got their two goals but no – they did not come as a result of ‘possession based attacking’…

Of additional intrigue is that (to date) Vancouver are unsurpassed by any team Portland has played in overall efficiency; this one point draw in retrospect was, indeed, a superb result.  In viewing that data is it any wonder that Vancouver beat LA Galaxy three – nil; it shouldn’t come as a surprise and I would offer Vancouver will continue to remain a tough team throughout the remainder of this season.

And from a point of variation; the ability that Rennie has to run different formations and different tactics with as many as 20 different players makes this team even tougher.  The flexibility for Portland to do this is ‘not there’ yet…

With this improvement and the thrashing of FC Dallas 4-2, by Seattle, this years’ Cascadia Cup competition should be wicked good and perhaps even a precursor to the MLS Western Conference playoffs???  An opportunity for a truly superb Playoff match…

So attacking efficiency offers up one point of view; what about some other things influencing/impacting possession this game?  Here’s how penetrations and goal scoring opportunities played out in fifteen minute increments for these two teams…

Penetrations and Goal Scoring Opportunities by Fifteen Minute Increments

NOTE:  A new feature in this diagram will include Yellow and Red Cards.  As usual the star indicates when someone scored and the white/gold bars indicate frequency of goal scoring opportunities created while the green/blue bars indicate a penetration into the opponents red zone.

As a reminder – note PT60 (the fifteen minute increment with the lowest PA3 and GSO) is the time-frame when Portland got their first goal… ironically the time-frame for Vancouver’s first goal also came during the fifteen minute increment that was their lowest as well…

Overall, t’s clear Portland dominated first half possession; they had more penetrations and more goal scoring opportunities created – that didn’t equate to shots on goal though.

When looking at all the data for both sides these same inputs generated roughly the same outputs (15/16 shots taken, 4 shots on goal and 2 goals scored); so with less attacking work Vancouver created the same output… Lean Six Sigma types would like that…

Next up Defensive Clearances (here’s where I think things begin to take shape on Rennie changing tactics to start the second half).

All told Vancouver had 45 defensive clearances with 32 of those coming in the first half (let the opponent penetrate and then shut down lanes and clog the 18); again that pattern on clearances matches statistics in previous games when Rennie has run the 4-3-3.

So what about Portland and the approach Rennie was taking in attack?  Portland had 9 defensive clearances in their first half and 14 in the second half; this indicates a transition from less attack to more attack for Vancouver (a shift from the 4-3-3 to a 4-2-3-1?).

Is there anything else to support this transition?

If you recall my match preview I offered up that Vancouver would generate fewer crosses running to a 4-3-3 as opposed to a 4-2-3-1.  In the first half Vancouver generated only four crosses (three from the right and one from the left).

That trend changed in the second half; Vancouver generated an additional 13 crosses in the second half with nine coming down the right side and 4 down their left – (the right side increase is again another indicator on moving to a 4-2-3-1).  So that is four indicators that Rennie changed tactics…

1.  Higher levels of VWFC defensive clearances in the first half (indicating passive / aggressive 4-3-3) to fewer defensive crosses (10) in their own defending half (aggressive/passive)…

2.  Increased clearances by the opponent (Portland) from first to second half…

3.  Increased numbers of crosses from the first to the second half…

4.  Increased crosses down their right side (as the 4-2-3-1 pattern previously indicated.

With all that change going on what did it get Vancouver; it got them 1 point…  so Rennie had three points in the bag (first half) with a 4-3-3 approach and he pretty much botched it up by shifting to a more aggressive 2nd half strategy…

I’d be willing to bet that doesn’t happen again.  And don’t say it won’t because that info is here… bollocks; Rennie and Porter know their stuff regardless of what punters and pundits offer; Porter has got to be well and truly pleased on getting a point here and Rennie is no doubt rankled he ruined the chance for three points…  the after the match handshake probably says it all…

Possession – defense second – although Portland has not been the best at converting goal scoring opportunities to goals they are doing a good job of possessing the ball.  The more they possess the ball the less time the opponent has to score goals; so while ineffective in efficiency that time of possession is helpful on the defensive side.

As time passes I will also develop a defensive efficiency rating working off of possession; more as the year progresses on that one…

So how about the A-PWP Estimate for Vancouver I offered up in my match preview compared to the Actuals for this game?

Here’s how game one of this three game set played out on actuals…

Attacking PWP Estimate and Actual for VWFC vs PTFC

While the actual numbers (blue line/bar) don’t match the estimated (yellow line/bar) the overall linear relationship of those seven data points does…  in comparing data points for the estimate to the actual it would appear Rennie is running a direct attack approach (less possession with higher PA3 and GSO) while fielding a formation that better suits a possession based approach???  I don’t recall seeing that in previous opponent data but will look for it more as the season develops.  Perhaps there is a way to trend ‘direct attacking styles’ to other styles with this analysis too???

Of interest is how closely the estimated linear relationship ended up being to the actual linear relationship – and even more intriguing for me is how that ‘actual’ matched up nicely with the opponent averages (red bar/line) to date…  I will continue to offer up these estimates for Western Conference matches…

Defense -

If you recall in my match preview I offered that “getting behind the ball” would not be the issue – it would be “managing the speed of Vancouver players relative to being in good position and anticipating through balls to prevent the breakaway goal”.  Too true for Saturday and the heart of a concern after watching this match as Portland prepares for two more road trips (DC United and Chicago) – these are bottom feeders (no disrespect) and the pundits going in should be betting Portland wins those games by 1.5 goals or more…

1.  Harrington got a Yellow from basically being out of position from a through ball…

2.  Will Johnson got a Yellow from basically being out of position from a through pass and dribble that led to a Yellow card and the first Vancouver goal…

3.  Valeri also got a Yellow from being out of position to stop a counterattack by Vancouver, and

4.  Futty got a red card for also being out of position on a through ball to Sanvezzo… three of those bookings occurred in the defending half and one led directly to a goal scored; not good…

5.  If that’s not enough the right defensive side also had issues against Vancouver as well – on two separate occasions in the second half Vancouver had an open left wing to penetrate and cause havoc in the Timbers back-four.  In recalling those plays it was like a tale of wounded soldiers lying on the pitch from misplaced tackles and good passing.  It was this breakdown on our right (their left) that led to their second goal.

 As for Vancouver – Davidson’s name was not called much but he was present and did a good job of filling in the gaps where Reo-Coker wasn’t – no stats here just my impression.  Plenty of other info to file away for the two remaining matches this year and perhaps a playoff match as well?

As for their other players; while Vancouver only got the draw I am pretty impressed with this team; the variation (fog of war) generated by Rennie and how they rotate and move about the pitch.  Shame I can’t watch them a bit closer to glean more from this enemy…

Wild Things – As advertised in my match preview Reo-Coker was the one to watch for Vancouver; he’s suspended for the next MLS game given his combined Yellow cards (5) over the early course of this season.

As for Portland – again noted in my match preview getting stoppages in ‘safes areas’ is a good thing provided it’s not a red card; well Portland had three yellows in their defensive area and one red in their defensive area – they are lucky, really lucky only one player got sent off and only gave up one goal based upon that large number of Yellows.  Attempted sliding tackles and yellow cards are great indicators of defenders being out of position; there were many sliding tackles this game and four bookings…

Substitutes - The chemistry of the players that go into the mix are just as critical as the strategy and tactics to support it – Valencia was the right substitution at the right time… I was a bit dubious about seeing Johnson get pulled for Piq; that was a like for a like and the previous ‘like’ had not generated much attack with any great effect… Piq has been subbed on a number of times and his +/- is not near as impressive as Valencia with just four appearances…

I hope we see more of Valencia and only see Piq come on when Porter wants to revert to a two-striker formation (if that 4-4-2 ever makes an appearance?).  I did recall Caleb indicating he wasn’t just a 4-3-3 guy but to date he continues to run with one standard ‘target striker’ as opposed to two – so however you slice it he’s running a basic 4-5-1 with rotation that sometimes mirrors a 4-6-0.

It’s not fair on Piq to come in and work with midfielders who have tired legs and his positional sense is not that much different to Johnson.  Piq doesn’t change the makeup of this team that much to warrant a straight swap for Johnson that will lead to a goal – it hasn’t to date and in the small amount of time Valencia has seen his injection HAS altered this team…

As expected Alhassan made an appearance with the injury to Nagbe – I continue to like his nifty touches and vision but the work rate mystifies me; there were a few times where is was better at ball watching than tracking back… Zizzo continues to see playing time with the reserves – he is working to get a better left peg and his vertical pace is quicker than most on this team.

In closing…

Variation, nuance and deception did rule this game – both ended up being strong in planning and executing what they needed to do to get a draw; neither were sharp enough to take three points…

What was known – Portland did prod, poke and push with pressure and fast paced possession (perhaps to fast) down all three parts of the pitch; no PA3 location exceeded 38% and no GSO location exceeded 41%…

Vancouver did start in a 4-3-3 and did convert to a more aggressive approach in the second half; there was little variation in where they went; the looked to penetrate down their left (our right) 51% of the time and generate their goal scoring opportunities from their right (our left) 45% of the time… the middle was pretty much shut down except for that goal by Koffie and that free kick by Sanvezzo.

Next up Match Preview Portland Timbers vs DC United…

So does that downplay the value of this early season Cascadia Cup clash with Portland?  Most likely not.  If you have paid any attention to Vancouver this year you’ll know that Rennie very rarely trots out the same 11 every match; so while some players may be a wee bit tired others will be on fresh legs for sure.

To set the tone for this match you may find this recent press conference with Caleb Porter following the match against Chivas (in case you missed it) interesting…

So on to my usual items of interest…

BC Place – The tenor of the crowd will be riding high regardless of the result against Montreal – their capacity is 21,000 and chances are the game will be sold out given it’s importance to both cities; perhaps a few members of each supporters group might chat for a few moments to recall how well they worked together against the MLS in that small ‘trademark’ battle?  Like footballers though I imagine that friendship will be put-to-the-side once kickoff arrives.

Weather – Partly cloudy – with perhaps some chances of rain and 60 odd degrees – good football weather and with not much sunshine the weary legs might not be so weary for Vancouver…

Standings – Everyone in Portland pretty much gets it that the Timbers are second in the standings at this time – and some teams below them have a game or two in hand – one of those teams is Vancouver (one game in hand) and while they have only played 10 MLS games this year they will have played 13 by the time Portland arrive later this week.

History – Vancouver came from 2 goals down in the final 10 minutes to take the first leg against Edmonton a few weeks ago and then the next week beat them 2-nil to set up the Canadian Cup clash with Montreal tonight.  Make no mistake this team can score; while not as often as Portland they do have four players with two goals scored each… variation…  a theme for this weekend’s game perhaps?

Cascadia Cup Standings – Portland Timbers (1), Seattle Sounders (1), Vancouver Whitecaps (0) – first Cascadia Cup match for Vancouver – they have Portland at BC Place twice this year and they travel to Seattle twice this year.  Hard to imagine that this Cup Match is bigger than the Canadian Cup Championship.  This is really a tough stretch for Vancouver… 3 matches in a row and all have great meaning above and beyond the tenor of a normal match… at least for the fans.

Formation – Here’s where it gets interesting – Variation – Vancouver have run at least four basic formations this year and the use has varied not only when at home but also on the road… nothing appears standard but in peeling back some data perhaps this paints a picture on the ‘why’ and the ‘when’ Rennie has used one formation as opposed to another…

First off, Rennie has had his team work from a 4-3-3 (3 times), a 4-3-2-1 (once) the 4-2-3-1 (6 times) and most recently (tonight) a 4-1-4-1; no real pattern is apparent based upon whether the game was home or away or whether or not one player is starting in one position versus another.

To be clear; Rennie not only has changed his formation on a regular basis he has also changed his starting squad on a regular basis.  It would appear he has taken variation to a different level…  I didn’t say better; just different…

But there is some grist here when peeling back a few data points that may have meaning…

Rennie has opted to run the 4-3-3 against LA Galaxy, FC Dallas and Chivas USA (March 10th) roughly two games after Chivas defeated FC Dallas 3-1 on March 30th.  I would offer that it is this system that Rennie works to when he wants his team to be more patient and run a less aggressive style of play.

Is there any data that can support that?  Compared to the 4-2-3-1 averages (6 games) this year the opponent averaged 10 less defensive clearances in their red-zone; that usually translates to less attacking pressure applied by the Opponent (Vancouver) in looking to move the ball forward quickly; i.e. a more deliberate and more controlled pace and tenor that minimizes risk a bit more and can reduce chance for counterattack.

Perhaps more relevant is the significant drop in total numbers of crosses between the two formations; when running the 4-3-3 Vancouver have averaged 10 fewer crosses per game (4-2-3-1 average was 24 and 4-3-3 average was 14) than when running the 4-2-3-1.

Finally, and probably not a good indicator on it’s own the Vancouver goalkeeper also played (on average) 6 more long balls per game working within the 4-3-3 than within the 4-2-3-1.  This tactic, coupled with the other two lend themselves better to clearing the ball out and using less overall aggression in trying to push the ball from a position of danger when playing aggressive teams like Dallas, LA and Chivas (at the time).  On it’s own I wouldn’t offer it as a true indicator though…

So for me, that says he’s running a ‘stay at home’ type wing formation to control the run of play within the midfield and looking for a closed game as opposed to a wide-open one; perhaps others have a different view?  One additional tidbit is that when running the 4-2-3-1 Vancouver averaged 10 more crosses (7 of those 10 more come down their right (our left)) – so it could be reasonable to offer that if Rennie opts for the 4-3-3 we will see fewer crosses and overlaps than with a 4-2-3-1.

So who has Rennie run the 4-2-3-1 against?

Rennie ran this formation both home and away against Real Salt Lake, once against FC Dallas (home), away to San Jose, and home against both Columbus and Toronto.  While I’m not up on all those teams yet I would offer that Rennie is probably running a 4-2-3-1 when he thinks his team can go toe-to-toe with an opponent and he then runs the less aggressive (more slow playing) 4-3-3 when he’s up against what he considers to be a more aggressive opponent where going toe-to-toe might put his team at greater risk.

If that is reasonable then Rennie appears to be (like Porter) a defense first kind of guy… with the productivity and efficiency of the Timbers being quite high at this time I would offer Rennie could open in a 4-3-3 and at least two or three of those starters will be players who did not start against Montreal tonight.

Goals Scored -  Vancouver have four players sitting on 2 goals apiece; so like Portland they have a number of players who can put the ball into the back of the net.  In order to get a little more familiar with their players here’s a diagram offering up who is taking the shots, putting them on goal and scoring by position…

SHOT TAKERS – TARGETS FOR VANCOUVER 2013

As noted before Rennie likes variation in who his Forwards are – six have had game time at varying degrees with Mattocks leading the Forwards in minutes played at 592, Sanvezzo is up next with 467 minutes while Heinemann trails with 134 minutes..  Bth Sanvezzo and Mattocks lead the team in shots taken as well as being tied with Teibert and Miller with two goals apiece.

Koffie, a midfielder leads the team in assists with 7 others sitting on one each.  As far as distribution of points goes his midfielders have nine points while his forwards have 11.  Again variation in where the danger on this team can come from.

The players leading the team in minutes played with all those differing formations used are Young-Pyo (900), O’Brien (899), Rochat (885) and Reo-Coker (850), four others have between 600 and 800 minutes played (all midfielders or defenders).

In considering this information it would appear that the Forwards used are a function of what opponent is being taken on as opposed to the midfielders and defenders.

As for the Timbers they have five guys with at least three goals while Johnson & Johnson co-lead the team with four each…   Valeri leads the team in assists with 4 while Chara and Ryan Johnson have three each.

Curved Air -  As noted it would appear that the long ball is played a wee bit more in their 4-3-3 formation as opposed to 4-2-3-1 formation but statistics are sometimes hard to judge when not knowing the context of actions occurring in a given game.

Possession – This is a really hard one to judge without understanding the context of the previous games Vancouver have played (given their variation in formations) but perhaps the data available, to date, can be compared with previous data collected for Portland and their opponents this year…

To check it out I took the average Attacking PWP (A-PWP) data for Vancouver (to date) and plugged it into my own A-PWP diagram; here’s what that looks like.

ESTIMATED ATTACKING PWP FOR VWFC

Note: TOP (Time of Possession), Defensive Clearances in the ‘red-zone’ by the Opponent, Shots Taken, Shots on Goal and Goals Scored is actual data and the overall linear relationship with those five points ended up being .9905; pretty strong and note the similarity between the Yellow Line (Vancouver Estimate) and Red Line (PTFC Opponent Actual)…

In reviewing that line it seems reasonable to me to estimate that their attacking penetrations and goal scoring opportunities would match closely with the real average from other PTFC opponents this season.

Bottom line here is who will be the best in putting the ball into the back of the net… we know that possession alone doesn’t support points in the league table; but efficiency relative to all these data points does have some relevance (.7780).  Execution is bottom line and the more effective a team is in creating space to create goal opportunities the more likely that shot taken will be a shot on goal and therefore a goal scored.

Defense –  If one thing has been steady and non-variant this year for Vancouver it is their back-four; as noted earlier the players who have seen the most minutes on the pitch throughout their first ten games are their defenders… Young-Pyo (right fullback) Rochat (left fullback) O’Brien (left center-back) and Rusin (right center-back) could start provided Leveron doesn’t get a start given playing minutes against LA.

Both Pyo and Rochat will get forward and will offer up crosses as needed but if they play to a 4-3-3 we might not see them venture as far forward if it were a 4-2-3-1…  Note – Young-Pyo did not start against Montreal tonight and Rochat played left midfield.

As for the midfield – it looks as if Davidson (did not start against Montreal) and Reo-Coker are the guys who will focus on Nagbe and Valeri the most but we could see Koffie drop back as well to lend support.  Kobayashi will probably line up on the right side (as he has most of the year) while any number of different players may fill in the spaces before seeing Sanvezzo slot into the left side.

NOTE:  Sanvezzo, Miller and Kobayashi did not travel to Montreal for the first leg of the Canadian Cup Championship game so it remains unclear if they will be match fit for this Cascadia Cup clash; Reo-Coker lined up as right back in the Montreal game and again Rennie ran a different formation (4-1-4-1) with Rusin moving up to play front sweeper with Harvey slotting in as left back.   Mattocks played alone up top while Leveron slid into the back-four to partner up with O’Brien… Watson, Koffie and Teibert filled in at the other three midfield slots.

As for Portland – most likely the same back-four with Harrington again on the left and Jack on the right…  Baptiste and Danso should return in their spots as well.

A huge challenge for these four guys and the rest of the midfield will be managing the speed of Vancouver, Manneh and Mattocks are lightening quick – so getting behind the ball is not the full story here in defense; getting in good position and anticipating through balls is even more critical to prevent a breakaway goal.

Wild Things – Reo-Coker has the honor of leading Vancouver in fouls as well as yellow cards; he’s on four yellows to date – the next in line for fouls and yellow cards is Koffie.  Both these guys will probably line up in the midfield with Koffie playing slightly further ahead of Reo-Coker and Davidson.

With few yellow cards of late the trends of last year with Diego Chara and Jack Jewsbury are slowly fading… getting stoppages in play in ‘safe areas’ is a good thing provided it’s not a red card – with the speed of Vancouver I imagine their may be a foul or two in the midfield area to better manage positional play.

Substitutes –  Hard to say with Vancouver; the bench looks strong given how many different players have started this year – tactics can and probably will change given a change in scoreline for either team… this should be a great tactical match-up!

For Portland the rotation has included Zemanski, Alhassan and Piq of late; perhaps we see Zizzo?  That might depend on the scoreline or other tactical changes made by Rennie…

In closing -

Variation, nuance, deception and some unseen tactics will rule this game; who’s better on the day both in planning and in execution?

What is known?

Portland will be poke, prod and push with pressure and fast paced possession directed down the middle, the right, or the left in this Cascadia Cup clash…

Vancouver will start any one of 15 different players in 10 different positions in one of four different formations…

What is unknown – the scoreline.  Should be a bloody brilliant game – they have all been great games to date; no need for variation there!

Next up Match Analysis Portland Timbers vs Vancouver Whitecaps…

In case you missed it here’s a report from Mike Donovan on the game with Soccer by Ives…

And here’s another ‘intriguing and worthy of delving into’ writeup by theaxepdx…

You may have seen the front side of this picture in theaxepdx offering; so here’s that picture and my report from a slightly different angle…

Photo by Dave Pracz – Three Points For Portland Timbers versus Chivas USA

As duly noted in my match preview this could be a great match to build confidence from as Portland begin a three game road trip before a return trip to Portland and another markee matchup (televised nationally on ESPN) against FC Dallas.

But as Caleb pointed out in his postgame media conference; this is but one game in the regular season and the only game of importance coming up is the next one against Vancouver…  no disagreement here – and with the added grist of this being a Cascadia Cup match it helps afford a tone of ‘one game at a time’ for the fans as well.

So on to my analysis working from the same platform offered up in my match preview…

JELD-WEN – Another sell out crowd – with this one probably having a few additional Mothers joining the ranks than in the past.  I did offer  that Chivas could get just as much energy from the crowd as Portland – if they did it’s hard to tell.  I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a more deliberate and focused attack and defense as what I saw yesterday – perhaps others have?

Tidbit… Courtesy of ChivasUSA here’s a thought from Sola after the game…  “The atmosphere is great, this exactly what the world of soccer needs. I was glad to be part of it, even though we lost, it was still fun for the crowd,” .  Class…  I like what this guy is trying to bring to MLS – gutsy move offering up a 3-5-2 this season even though they didn’t run that system yesterday…

Weather - Bottom line here – not really a factor – it was a little bit humid but not in your face hot - overall a good night for footy and with the win and it being Mother’s Day it was superb all around.

Standings - With this win Portland have now moved up to 2nd place in the Western Conference and it doesn’t get any easier traveling to Vancouver this coming weekend.

Tidbit… Note that there are other teams with as many as two ‘games in hand’ (LA Galaxy and Seattle) so while the table offers up one view it is not a view with total number of games all being equal.

Formation – Im my match preview I did offer up that Chivas (if they were going to “slow play” and “park the bus”) would operate out of the more basic 4-4-2 as opposed to the 3-5-2.

Tidbit… That indeed was the case – from the opening kickoff Borja and de Luna were lined up square with Valazques and Purdy while Burling was on the bench; and throughout the game those relationships did not change.  If of import to you it can be confirmed looking at the MLS “Formation” offered up in the Statistical Match Report.  It was a bit misleading for some since the roster provided to the press before hand indicated a 3-5-2.

Bottom line… Chivas never got their feet settled.  To put it differently Chivas never did get that bus parked – it seemed like they spent 90 minutes trying to parrallel park it and just never got there.

Goals Scored -  In my match preview I first had Chivas goals scored average at .75; I corrected that a bit later – their average this year was 1.33 – needless to say that average has gone down since this game.

Tidbit… Noted earlier is this analysis I made mention of Chivas opening up in a 4-4-2 as opposed to 3-5-2; with that move we not only didn’t see Burling we also didn’t see Villafana (their leader in assists).  Clearly Silo was sacrificing some attacking pressure to facilitate his team parking the bus… with Portland having two more games against Chivas I’d be willing to bet Silo reverts back to that 3-5-2 and gets Villafana back on the pitch.

In reading the tenor of his comments after the game my guess is tone, in this loss to Portland, is more a reflection on his regret in not working to the 3-5-2 as opposed to the 4-4-2; perhaps others have a different view?

As for Portland – well – ab-fab/brilliant/top-totty/the Dog’s Bollocks! all great phrases or words to describe the outburst resulting from superb ball movement both on the counter and in the normal run of play.

Curved Air – It didn’t take a rocket scientist to see that McLain launched from square one more often than the short ball to a defender – to be precise he offered up 22 past the midfield line and 14 short of it.  Again, another indication of their team trying to relieve pressure mixed with an attempt to slow play.

Tidbit… As for Mister Fantastic and Portland – they played only 5 of 27 balls from square one long… possession and possession with purpose.

Possession – and Possession with Purpose…

A number of statistics to offer here but first some observations in no particular order…

1. Baptiste had some significant freedom in wandering very high up the pitch yesterday and to quantify that here’s a link to his OPTA chart on pass distribution…  I don’t recall any central defenders ever getting that far forward (excluding free kick set-pieces) that often and it’s a compliment to Baptiste that he has the confidence (as do the coaching staff) in his ability to venture that far forward.

2. Horst would venture a wee bit forward last year and even Futty got forward yesterday but if that much space opens up it is very good to see him push forward; of course the flip side is ‘he better bloody well keep possession of the ball and make good on his passes’; it was that same venturing forward by Collin that led to the first goal by Portland in their match against Kansas City…  Kudos AJ!

3. Rotations, in case you missed it Nagbe and Valeri as well as Chara and Johnson (along with Nagbe) regularly rotated about the pitch in search of gaps and weaknesses and different match-ups throughout parts of this game…  It’s rotational play like this that likens a 4-3-3 to a 4-6-0.  I didn’t see Wallace and Johnson rotate as much as the other two but it should be noted that it was Wallace, in a traditional #9 location that fed Valeri, in a traditional #10 role-away that got Portland their second goal.

4.  There is another advantage to this as well… it allows players to rotate and take the odd ‘moving rest’ throughout a 90 minute game… no matter how good someone’s motor is lactate acid will build up and break down muscles… seeing these rotations is cool and it’s definitely not something that worked well last year.

5.  I’m not really a fan of singling out individual players all that much but it appears others seem to enjoy that so here’s a blurb or two on Rodney Wallace.

6.  I continue to track the front runner in the NHL (+/-) statistic as it applies to MLS; the front runner for Portland remains Rodney Wallace.  I offered this up three/four weeks ago when he was at +5 and now he is at +8.  In considering how low goal scoring is in Soccer that seems an incredibly high number.

7.  So while others have just begun singing the praises of Rodney Wallace it’s almost getting boring for me to offer up how well he has played this year.  I can offer up other players who have contributed key ‘ingredients to the success of Portland this year but the ‘hot player’ in the press this week seems to be Rodney.

8.  As a pundit I think it is worth mentioning again that Rodney was my number 4 keeper from last year’s team with only Jack Jewsbury, Darlington Nagbe and AJ Baptiste rating higher.

9.  To be clear though… there are 18-20 players on this squad who remain ready to engage as ‘team players’… Rodney is just one guy on this team – and a team is what is needed to win games – so while I offer up these praises all these guys work hard and execute a game plan that needs 11-18 players – not just one…

On to Possession with Purpose and some “team” statistics…

First off – the diagram I like the best…

Attacking Efficiency PTFC vs Opponents To Date

A couple of things…

1.  The overall difference between these two teams clearly shows in the far left pairing (CUSA1); Portland had their most efficient game this year outside of the away match to Colorado and while the separate statistics might not show it the overall efficiency for Chivas still exceeded that of San Jose in that away game draw we had and how well Houston performed ‘collectively’ as a team in that 2-nil victory at JELD-WEN.

2.  Anytime a team scores more goals they should become more efficient; with three goals scored by Portland it is good to see that the data also supports increased efficiency… it would be concerning to me, about the validity of this data, if the Timbers efficiency didn’t come to the same level as that 3 goal outburst in Kansas City or that 2 goal come from behind draw in Colorado.

So how about overall penetration and creation of goal scoring opportunities for these two teams over the course of 90 minutes (seen in 15 minute increments)???

Penetrations and Goal Scoring Opportunities in 15 Minute Increments

Here’s where the true visual can best present the overall domination (comprehensive domination) that Portland had over Chivas USA yesterday afternoon.

From the viewpoint of Sola it should be blatantly clear that the formation (4-4-2) that he used to work this game was completely off-base.  While I don’t know the average number of PA3 or GSO’s for this team in their nine games before this one there were at least 7 games prior to this one where they had more shots taken, four games more where they had more shots on goal, four games more where they had more goals and seven games more where they had better possession.

The two worst games they have had this season have come against Sporting KC and Portland – both away match and in that 180 minutes of play they only generated a total of 11 shots with just 3 being on goal.

Bottom line for Chivas is that if you (Portland fans) think this game was a blowout – the game against SKC for Chivas was even worse.

Notice the time-frame between 15 minutes and half-time; Portland generated more PA3 and more GSO in that 30 minutes of play than Chivas did their entire game!

Perhaps something to consider — Portland takes the first 15 minutes or so to ‘measure up the opponent’ and then converts a brilliant counterattack to get their first goal…  I say that given how much rotation and isolation going on to test different match-ups this game.

Chivas then goes in at half-time; makes adjustments and comes back out for round 2.  15 minutes later Portland has readjusted and two more goals follow in the space of 30 minutes.  So while it appears there were ‘just three goals’ there is quite a bit of cerebral work going on behind the scenes to try and get different match-ups’; recalling of course that it was Wallace, in the middle – just atop the 18 – who slid through that lovely pass to Valeri rotating in from the left.  Those guys don’t get to those positions willy-nilly…  there is method and purpose and Porter has significantly molded the mindset and thinking of these players to leverage every ounce they can to score a goal.

Wild Things – Two yellow cards for Chivas and again no Yellow’s for Portland – more importantly no Yellow’s for Diego Chara – his discipline and control had gotten a whole lot better and that early season trend on hitting last year’s numbers is toast…  As for Chivas – it should come as no surprise that de Luna got booked again; that gets him tied with Velazquez at 4 and both trail Burling by one… perhaps those five yellow’s also had something to do with Burling sitting on the subs bench yesterday?

Defense – No surprise in seeing Harrington rotate back to the left side – what was surprising though was seeing the overwhelming numbers of PA3 and GSO down the PTFC left – Chivas right; here’s the diagram for your consideration…

Chivas and other Opponent Penetrations To Date

In all fairness though the surprise shouldn’t have been that big – when viewing their history to date Chivas (CUSA1) have run the 4-4-2 twice before, once against Columbus and in their win against FC Dallas.  In both of those games their primary entry point for attack based upon ‘OPTA crossing data’ was the right side.  Against Dallas they offered up 15 out of 24 crosses from the right and against Colorado they offered up 14 crosses out of 18 from the right…

In considering that – perhaps that is why we again saw Harrington rotate back to the left side?

So you know in most other games when they have run the 3-5-2 Villafana has had a big role (as noted in my match preview) on offering up crosses from the left.  No Villafana – not many crosses from the left and minimal variation…

Here’s their distribution on goal scoring opportunities…

Chivas and other Opponent Goal Scoring Opportunities To Date

68% of their 21 goal scoring opportunities were generated from the right side as well – so even when they penetrated on the left or down the middle they still relied on their right side to create the overwhelming majority of their opportunities.

All told that simple approach is probably what made it easier to defend against Chivas – they were one dimensional in attack with no variation…

Substitutes – Two subs for Chivas that were probably more related to getting their players some playing time as opposed to any tactical decision to change an approach – Correa came in as a Forward and Ponce came on as a midfielder – if tactics were going to change it is likely Burling would have come on – perhaps he has a slight injury or something?

As for Portland – a worthy substitute for Jack Jewsbury – he’s had many minutes of late and Zemanski was a worthy sub…  not much defensive activity but it’s good for Zemanski to get some playing time – especially against his old club.

I also liked the Piq sub for Harrington – I think that was a ‘cold water test’ on how things might look with a 4-4-2… intriguing and it adds huge variation again for this team… nice sub Caleb!

Kalif coming on for Nagbe looked to me like a ‘he’s tired’ and ‘let’s pull him off’ more than anything else but chemistry is a funny thing and players with Alhassan’s vision sometimes work really well together with workmanlike ‘two-striker’ formations…

In closing -

Portland have played better but perhaps in the mad adrenaline rush with such domination that gets lost… 11 games done and dusted – Portland are near the top of the table – this team at this point is a far better team than this team ‘at any point’ last year….

Tidbit… here’s the PTFC attacking efficiency to date compared to PTFC Opponents played to date…

Adjusted Possession with Purpose (PTFC vs Opponents) To Date

Next up a huge Cascadia Cup clash as Portland Timbers return to the location of their greatest and only away win last year!

Here’s some topics and quick thoughts about this match on Mother’s Day Sunday…

JELD-WEN – Fan support in this City is HUGE compared to what Chivas play to at home in LA – any player, regardless of who they play for, will get pumped when playing in front of a large crowd… while it’s a home game for Portland, Chivas could get just as much energy from this crowd as Portland…  that might not translate to wide open play but it could sustain energy for both sides well into the later stages of this game.

Weather – Partly cloudy – chance of rain – great footy weather if you ask me…   another aspect of this game that might enable sustained energy for a long period of time in this game.

Standings – Two teams separated by four points with Chivas at -3 goal differential and Portland at +3 goal differential.  Make no mistake though – neither team is the same team as last year and as much as Porter has injected new life with Portland, Sola has done the same with Chivas.

Formation – Ah… here’s something new in MLS – Chivas run a 3-5-2 (3-4-1-2 / 3-4-2-1) or at least they have for the better part of the season –  I wonder how that formation and system will match up against Portland?  For me I think seeing Chivas try to run 3 at the back is wicked good for MLS – their success will be followed quite closely I imagine but the oddity with this game is Alvarez and Kennedy (suspended) will both be missed by Chivas.

Tidbit…  This is a new formation for Portland to defend against but chances are it operates similar in wing pressure as the games Portland have had against Sporting KC and Seattle…  Chara and Johnson again will be pressed to support the wings if Wallace and Nagbe (maybe Zizzo?) are asked to play a bit higher to stretch the back three.  With that approach it frees up Valeri to take advantage of open space atop the 18 yard box if PTFC catch CUSA in transition.

I offer up Zizzo here as he likes to penetrate deep down the wings (the wider and deeper the better against a back-three) as opposed to Nagbe because Darlington almost simply refuses to penetrate deep down deep into the wings as much as he prefers to role inside and seek combination off Valeri in the middle.

One other reason here is that some players have rotated about these last few games to get some rest and maybe we see Nagbe get some rest early on – I don’t see Kalif as his pace lacks a wee bit and he seems to operate better in more confined spaces than Zizzo.

The other tidbit on Zizzo is that in his last game with the Reserves Zizzo played some crosses in with his left peg on the right side – it’s the first time I’ve seen Zizzo use his left-peg to offer up in-swinging crosses from the right; perhaps others have seen this before?  For me – personally – this is a huge indicator that Portland is really working hard to maximize variation; in-swingers in the run of play from both sides add significant value.

Goals scored – In straight calculations their goal average per game is 1.33 – that is a bit misleading however since it implies they score roughly a goal a game – not really true; they pushed home 4 against Chicago (away) and popped in 3 against FC Dallas at home while netting 2 each in other home games against San Jose and Vancouver.  So while their goals per game average hovers above 1 this team can put the ball into the back of the net.

What’s hard to figure is who will be up front leading the attack this weekend – Agudelo has been traded and Alvarez is suspended.  To date Tristan Bowen leads the team in shots taken and at least four guys are tied for the ‘goals scored’ now that Agudelo has been shifted to New England.  As for play-makers it appears Villafana has the lead in assists (3) while Meija and Avila follow close behind on 2 each.

Tidbit…  An interesting thing about Villafana is how he’s slightly influenced attacking play down the left side for Chivas in their last five games; while their rate of crosses increased considerably against Colorado, Real Salt Lake and Vancouver they have waned back to earlier in the season against San Jose and Sporting KC.  Still, with Villafana on the left they should look to get him the ball to fire in crosses as appropriate.

So there is the potential to see their left side (our right) feel a bit more pressure; but SKC plays to the same generic system that Portland plays to and with seeing his team get shutout 4-nil against SKC Sola may look to change his approach/formation slightly and look to adopt something more similar to the successes seen by New England and Montreal in JELD-WEN this year.

Curved Air – There isn’t a set pattern here — against LA they played 12% of their balls short (loss 1-nil) and then in the next game they played 73% of their balls short.  That was a late away win so Chivas were not playing ‘keep-away’ – it was a strategy imposed from kickoff.

All told though they average roughly 45% of the balls played from square #1 short – but again that might be different with Kennedy suspended.  Another impact on playing the ball short has to do with how much pressure is applied by Portland – the greater the pressure the more likely Chivas will be to play it long and get it out of their defending half.

Tidbit… My guess is Chivas will try to slow the game down like Portland tried to against FC Dallas; New England and Montreal both had success here in ‘parking the bus’ so that is also a strategy they might take.  What makes it interesting is if Chivas run the 3-5-2 without Kennedy; the 3-5-2 doesn’t lend itself to slower play so intent on slowing the play down Chivas could open in a 4-4-2 to better support parking the bus.

Possession - There should be no question here who dominates possession – Chivas have averaged just 39 minutes of possession per game, this year, and have only twice hit the 45 minutes possession mark – once against Real Salt Lake and the other against FC Dallas.

No diagrams today on Possession – just some additional bits of info for consideration…

Teams playing against Chivas this year have averaged 21 defensive clearances in their red-zone while teams playing Portland have averaged 36 defensive clearances per game – clearly Portland puts more pressure in the opponents defending third.   Lest it gets forgotten – the second primary PWP statistic that has the best correlation to Points awarded in the MLS table is “defensive clearances” – a reasonable indicator here points to a win for Portland.

Chivas have averaged 10 shots taken per game…  Portland have averaged 14 shots per game – again Portland dominate this statistic…

Chivas have averaged 3 shots on goal…  Portland have averaged 5 shots on goal – again Portland dominates this statistic…

Chivas have averaged 1 goal per game…  Portland average 1.5 goals per game – again Portland dominate this statistic and this statistic currently has the best correlation to Points awarded in the MLS table.  So another reasonable indicator here points to a win for Portland…

Overall that is two reasonable indicators that point to a Portland victory – will the reliability of the statistics play out as advertised?

Hard to say – as seen with the game against New England and Dallas statistics offer up one perspective and this game isn’t played by statistics it’s played by 22 people influenced by their Head Coaches, the Referee’s and the fans… passion is a funny thing and just today we saw Wigan defeat Manchester City in the FA Cup… funny things happen on the pitch and that’s why this game is so brilliant!

Wild things – Burling leads the team in fouls conceded (18) with 5 yellow cards, Velazquez also has a number of fouls this year (13) with 3 yellow cards; the chances for gaining PK’s this game or free kicks in and around the 18 yard box are pretty high given the nifty touches and quick passing offered up by Portland.

Their substitutes – I have no clue really and with Agudelo gone and Alvarez suspended it remains a mystery to me on who might be called upon given certain game conditions let alone who starts.  Sola has varied his starting lineup quite a bit of late so perhaps some likely starters, in no particular order, include Burling, Iraheta?, Velazquez, Avila, de Luna, Correa?, Bowen?, Villafana, and Meija.  McLain came on for Kennedy before so chances are he starts.  Aye… that’s only 10 players out of 11 – who else starts I don’t know… perhaps others know???

Defense – They run the back-three and the normal back-three (over the course of their games so far) appears to be (left to right) Burling, Velazques and deLuna.  As noted Burling and Velazquez are prone to foul; well deLuna can too.  He has 9 fouls conceded (4 yellows) so the average number of fouls (per game) for their normal back three is 4.5 fouls while their average yellow cards per game is 1.3 for the back-three.

With Portland, Baptiste and Futty have a total of three this year and we all remember that dubious yellow card for Baptiste this past Wednesday  - let’s hope the fouls are kept to a minimum in the defending half this game – set pieces can win games — they also have a tendency to increase the chances of a lower performing team to win against higher performing team…

Tidbit… Pace down the wings and good interaction pushing to the center might be a solid recipe for Portland in breaking down that back-three – does that translate to Zizzo on the right or does that translate to greater penetration by Harrington overlapping Nagbe and more risk down our right side that facilitates more open space for Villafana?

The other thing to watch for are little looping balls over-the-top to get past the clogged midfield – with 5 Chivas players in the midfield space will be tight on the smaller JELD-WEN pitch.

In closing – I sense a tight game tomorrow – the back-four for Portland still remain suspect to me while the attack clearly has strength – balance and keeping alert for quick counterattacks will be critical as Portland push forward – overplay and losing shape against Chivas could get punished.

My offering for your consideration is that Porter again changes his squad just a wee bit compared to who started in the game against Dallas – the season is long and there remain times where one or two tweaks are not a negative reflection on play but more a positive reflection that the side needs to sustain a balance and stays fresh.

Next up Match Analysis Portland Timbers vs Chivas USA…

In summary…

Dan Itel does a good job covering games and offers up the quotes that got Caleb Porter fined from MLS this week…  some bite in those comments by Caleb but I would personally offer to him that he doesn’t need to do that as it takes some juice away from those of us who like to pick on MLS Referee’s – why – because we can and we won’t get fined…  save your breath and money Caleb!

Kip Kesgard, the ever present and most knowledgable Timbers writer with the Oregonian, offers up a great summary of the game for your consideration…

And likewise, one of the most insightful blogs in Portland, theaxepdx, offers up another view on the game that weaves in some crafty thoughts and observations…

With that said here’s my take on some details in this game working from the outline in my match preview…   

Weather – On another day in a different time of the year weather might impact a game more than it did Wednesday night.  Fortunately there was no gruesome heat – aye… it was a bit warm and humid but nothing like the scorching 95 degrees heat you can get, with no wind, in the middle of summer.  The final two games against FC Dallas come at JELD-WEN in June and August.

Standings - No change in points between FC Dallas and Portland; Real Salt Lake is now sandwiched between the two while LA remain on 14 points.  Bottom line here is both FC Dallas and Portland remain unbeaten in eight straight games…

Formation –  FC Dallas didn’t change their formation/approach until Hassli came on; more later on that – for now though they ran their bog-standard 4-2-3-1 with Castillo doing a brilliant job of ripping Harrington down our right – their left.

Goals Scored – Easy one here… Nagbe tucks home a superbly placed (blind cross?) by Wallace — not so blind as many may think though!

I have seen many teams practice that very rotation (even at the U-11 level) so while appearing blind Wallace knows where Nagbe is going and he looks to get it there as best he can.  For Dallas the Capt. Obvious goal came 7 minutes later after another questionable judgment call by the referee.

As for the comment by Porter – misplaced frustration is what I would call it…  If the referee really was a ’12th’ man for FC Dallas then surely he would have given Chara a Red Card for that brilliant tackle on Ferreira’s breakaway earlier on… no… this was a judgment call that simply went against Portland and Baptiste simply needs to learn to not tug shirts as blatantly as that…  another lesson learned in his Baptiste-ism by fire…

Curved Air – In my preview I offered up that FC Dallas played long balls from square one about 60% of the time.  In this game there were 25 long balls played from square one out of 38 possible (66%).  That’s not a big difference from the average but there is a data subset that might be used to support the ‘why’…  That data subset also happens to be the same one that supports the change in tactics when Hassli came on for Ferreira.

So here’s the variation on where goal scoring opportunities were created by FC Dallas this game and what we can ‘put in our pocket’ about the next time we play them…

FC DALLAS GSO CREATION BY 15 MINUTE INCREMENTS

A marked increase from the point where Hassli came on and FC Dallas got settled.

Note also the overall difference between their left side and right side throughout the match; Castillo was clearly a primary target for penetration (along with Ferreira) and it’s scary to think how this team might function with both Castillo and Jackson on the pitch at the same time.

Penetrations - So how about the overall PA3 and GSO for both teams?  Here’s that diagram for your consideration…

PENETRATIONS AND GSO BY 15 MINUTE INCREMENTS

To be clear – Portland had 47 minutes of possession while Dallas had 43…

Note the frequency in PA3 and GSO’s between the two teams…  quite a contrast really.  Even though Dallas had less possession of the ball they had far more penetrations and far more goal scoring opportunities created.

That data supports the overall tenor of this game where Dallas was doing it’s utmost to “get the ball, move it forward, and get it into the box” while Portland was trying to do their best to “slow the game down and pick their spots/times of penetration carefully”.

Bottom line here was Porter had a sound strategy and the team executed well; if not for the PK award by the Referee that approach most likely would have won the day.

Tidbit…   So that is three basic away game strategies we have seen against five different opponents… Porter had to watch his team play more direct against San Jose, while he led them in playing a more passive/aggressive approach against Seattle, Dallas and Colorado while changing tack completely and going all-out aggressive against Kansas City…

If you recall last year Portland couldn’t even play one approach correctly (no matter who the head coach was) – the evidence of repayment continues.

Here’s the overall penetration by Portland since day 1…

PENETRATIONS BY PTFC TO DATE

As with this entire season variation in penetration continues to remain a strong point with Portland.

So not only does Portland offer up variation in their (tactical) approaches to away games  they also continue to offer up variation in their penetration…

And oddly enough the only game where Portland dipped below 30% PA3 on the wings is when they lost to Montreal.

As for where PTFC generate their goal scoring opportunities; I’ll hold that back and instead offer up more detailed info on Dallas; here’s their distribution on penetrations in comparison to other PTFC foes.

PENETRATIONS BY OPPONENTS TO DATE

NOTE:  As a reminder; these data points are offered up from the Opponents perspective; so when seeing the high amount (57%) of PA3 for FC Dallas that points to our right fullback defensive side not our left.

Clearly, and if most saw the game, Castillo poked, prodded and usually passed Harrington down that wing; in another year or two, when this guy gets real time under his belt, he could be dangerous.  He (Castillo) had what I would consider were at least two ‘sitters’ that he blew with the most obvious being that cross to no-where instead of driving a shot low and hard to the far post…

Tidbit…  Bottom line for me is I remain unconvinced that this back-four is as solid as the results show; Ricketts has been absolutely stellar and his Mister Fantastic saves are more a result of him being appropriately placed to make a stop as opposed to a ‘collective-save’ by the back-four.  And if not for that superbly timed tackle by Chara this game would have had a different complexion; both Baptiste and Harrington were smoked by the slow footed Ferreira.

Overall the back – four was very disorganized and Silvestre’s leadership was clearly missed; Kah needs to be brought up to speed as soon as possible!

So how much pressure did FC Dallas apply?

Here’s their Adjusted PWP data added with the other PTFC opponents this year…

POSSESSION WITH PURPOSE BY OPPONENTS TO DATE

FC Dallas is the red bar in this diagram and the light blue bar to the left of that is the overall average of PTFC opponents to date.

While Dallas didn’t possess significant time on the ball they were just as aggressive as Portland was against New England last weekend.  This was a tough match and Dallas outperformed Portland on many areas of the pitch.

If you recall last week many offered up that Portland dominated New England and they should have won the game which meant New England was ‘lucky’ to walk away with a point… I would offer that that view is the same with this game only Dallas was on the ‘dominating side’ and Portland were lucky to walk away with a point; perhaps others have a different view?

With that here’s the overall picture on Possession with Purpose compared to MLS Points Awarded (to date):

CORRELATION OF PWP ATTACKING EFFICIENCY TO POINTS AWARDED

The correlation continues to hover around .74 – the closer to “1″ the better the correlation.  It has hovered there for over three weeks now…

Tidbit…  What is reinforced (for me) ‘again’ is how efficient Dallas was in their game versus Portland and how truly fortunate Portland was to walk out of there with one point; on another night (Montreal) we got beat and Montreal was less efficient than Dallas!

Aye; Portland led 1-nil for about 7 minutes but it just shows how twisted this game is where a team can completely outperform another but fail to win the bottom line; we saw that work against Portland in their match against New England and now we saw that work for Portland in their match against Dallas.

In closing…

J.d. Commando submitted a question to me today about Kalif Alhassan, Does CP keep Alhassan or does he look to move him?  Additional questions followed asking about his skill level and desire…

That’s a great question and here’s my offering for your consideration…  in no particular order…

1.  No doubt Kalif Alhassan has some of the best foot skills on this team; he can create magic and I think sometimes his vision is quicker than the ability of some of his teammates.

2.  That being said there are two sides to this game; attack and defend and like others (perhaps many others?) I sense that Kalif just isn’t switched on to the defensive side of this game – there could be two reasons for that – 1) he’s just not geared to defending or, 2) he sees an attack for what it is – reads the situation quickly and makes a judgment call on whether or not he needs to engage – being somewhat young that judgment call might not always be correct.

3.  Kalif is not blessed with great foot speed so other players with more speed might ‘appear’ to do more but actually do less – I have seen that with players as young as 11 – some players just burn a whole lot of energy and get nowhere for it.

4.  Striking – to date Kalif has taken 9 shots on goal with 2 on target and no goals scored – he has had good playing time – about 1/3 of the regulars but Rodney Wallace had had less playing time and greater success with his teammates on the pitch (chemistry) than Kalif.

5.  He did get playing time Wednesday night as Sal Zizzo sat on the bench; perhaps that is Sal playing instead of Kalif if he is ‘match fit’?

6.  This past summer I was told that the team had offers for Kalif to go on loan but with his injury towards the end of the season that was kicked into touch.

7.  How the rest of the season and his playing time unfolds is unclear at this time but one thing is for sure; Caleb Porter did not mince words nor delay actions that changed personnel on this team – and to the point Hanyer Mosquera is not here and his roster slot still remains…  if Caleb Porter wants to move Kalif he will…

8.  For me; I’m a firm believer that for a squad to be successful they need to have different skills and different types of players available to maximize variation – the greater the flexibility the head coach has in who he can select to play the stronger this team is throughout the course of 34 regular season games and however many ‘cup games’ come our way.

9.  As for his desire; I won’t personally question any players desire – there is no doubt he desires to be here and no doubt he desires to do his best – how we internally process what we see as lack of desire in one way might manifest itself differently if we were to walk in his shoes.  The guy has talent, can play and is professional – appearances in football can be deceptive – most everyone felt that Portland did a great job against Dallas and deserved to win – for me I disagree based upon what I saw and what the data offered up.

10.  Neither view is wrong really but the balance that gets struck between strengths and weaknesses of some players versus others has to do with what others offer in comparison to what Kalif offers.   I personally don’t foresee Kalif being moved anytime soon unless the financial transaction benefits Portland – in that case anyone is probably up for a move outside of Jack Jewsbury…  I remain convinced he brings certain skills to the pitch that others don’t – if another player can be brought to the team with those same skills ‘plus’ being a box-to-box guy then perhaps he does move.  But I would offer that if a player comes to this team with his foot skills and vision ‘and’ can play box-to-box he will be a hell of a lot more expensive than Kalif.

I’m not sure if that answered your question very well J.d. but for now those are my thoughts…

Last and certainly not the least…

Mister Fantastic – Donovan Ricketts – For the third week in a row and FIFTH time this year Donovan has taken MLS Save of the Week; here’s the article from PTFC.

Next Up – Match Preview Portland Timbers vs Chivas USA…

 Here’s some topics and quick thoughts about this match Wednesday evening…

Weather – it gets hot in Texas and the forecast for Wednesday shows 88 degrees with partly cloudy skies…  with the recent hot spell in Portland the Timbers players should be okay with that heat.

Standings – Most know that FC Dallas is atop the Western Conference League table; and it hasn’t been all by luck (hand ball withstanding against Houston) that has got them there.

Here’s a short blurb from Schellas Hyndman on the FC Dallas MLS site on some preparation for this game with the past weekend off…

Formation – FC Dallas have played a 4-2-3-1 eight games out of nine with their game against  Houston featuring a Diamond 4-4-2.

Goals Scored – FC Dallas average 1.667 goals per game while PTFC average 1.55 –  the top two goal scoring teams in the Western Conference and two of the top four attacking teams in MLS; I’ll bet MLS wished NBC was carrying this game and not the potential ‘snorer’ with Chicago taking on Philadelphia…

Curved Air – For the most part FC Dallas play about 60% of their balls from Square 1 past the midfield line; the odd one out in this is the game where Seitz started in lieu of Fernandez; that game was against Real Salt Lake and FC Dallas only played 7 out of 33 balls past the midfield line.

Possession – In the three games where they have had more than 50% possession FC Dallas have taken nine points (43 minutes of Possession by average); at this time they average about 12 shots taken, 5 shots on goal and the aforementioned 1.67 goals.  In contrast Portland average 54 minutes of Possession with 14 shots taken per game, just over 5 shots on goal and the aforementioned 1.55 goals per game.

In their first four games Kenny Cooper was the target guy but in their last four games Blas Perez has taken that role.  With that change FC Dallas have taken 8 out of a possible 12 points and are unbeaten in seven straight games.

Fullbacks and overlapping – Based upon OPTA data it appears Benitez (left fullback) and Loyd (right fullback) both push forward and look to engage with crossing.  What is very unusual though is the quantity of crosses that are historically being offered up on the right versus the left.

Here’s a diagram on where their crosses have come from in their first 9 games.

FC Dallas Crosses to Date

It really can’t be more obvious than that; only one game did the trend go against the right side and oddly enough that was the same game where they ran a Diamond 4-4-2 (away to Houston).

As for shot takers and potential target players for FC Dallas here’s how they stand today nine games in…

FC Dallas Shot Takers and Target Players To Date

Cooper and Perez are the leading shot takers and targets for Forwards while Jackson leads the Midfielders with Jacobson, Michel, Ferreira, and Castillo adding value.  It would appear that John is the primary target for set-pieces (corners and free kicks in the attacking third).

So what about this guy Jackson; in reviewing OPTA as well as reading up a bit on FC Dallas I would liken him to a player like Zusi; he can play either side of the pitch (has done) and has pace with an aggressive attacking streak.  With respect to defense; like Zusi he appears to track back but seems more inclined to recover loose balls and intercept (play the open spaces) as oppose to closing down and tackling.

Late Editorial – As a few have pointed out Jackson is sitting out this game due to the Red Card; @SoccerStatHunt (an FC Dallas Blogger) offers up that Castillo is likely to replace Jackson.

In going over additional OPTA data it appears that Michel and perhaps Jacobson lend themselves more to the role of enforcer(s) with Michel being more aggressive in the tackling department.  And when viewing their generic formations over the last four games both Michel and Jacobson have taken up a defensive central midfielder role similar to that of Chara and Johnson.

Wild things – For fouls conceded Jackson leads the team with 21 while Jacobson follows up with 16.  Both have one Yellow Card while Jackson leads the team with Red Cards at one.

Their substitutes – Only Watson has significant playing time outside of the most recent starting 11; in nine games played Hassli has just over 60 minutes; the idea of running Cooper, Perez and Hassli hasn’t materialized and it’s unlikely we see those three on the pitch unless the scoreline dictates.

Defense – Their back-four is strong with Hedges and John both having good pace and strength to go along with their taller body frames; John is the little guy at 6’3″.  Benitez and Loyd both have very good pace and some might consider them box-to-box midfielders who play fullback.

Goalkeepers – Fernandez has faced 40 shots with a 75% save percentage and has offered up 4 shutouts; Mister Fantastic (Donovan Ricketts) has faced 39 shots with a 69% save percentage and has offered up 3 shutouts.

Portland…

Game 2 of 3 in a 12 day span – Silvestre is out and that means Gangnes is probably on the subs bench while Baptiste and Danso lead the back-four.

In considering the FC Dallas tendency in working down their right (our left) I would offer that Harrington makes a return to that side of the pitch while Zemanski may pair up with Baptiste on the right; FC Dallas have quite a bit of pace on the wings and with Castillo (as speedy if not faster than Jackson) showing up on either wing, and this a first of two games in five days, a rest for Jewsbury might have value.

I again offer up that there could be a change elsewhere on the pitch; Portland have this game and then another on Sunday; the season is early days and some rest for a few players will add value as the season progresses.  I’m not sure if Zizzo traveled with the team but he as well as Piq might get a head nod to start if ready.

As a side note; Porter has yet to run a 4-4-2 type formation and as indicated by himself early on – before the season started – he’s not always been a 4-3-3 ‘guy’… might this match-up see PTFC trot out with both Johnson and Piq up top or perhaps someone else playing a more traditional #10 role?

However it plays out the temperature will be hot and the energy will drain quickly if possession with purpose doesn’t include a little bit of ‘rest time’ while controlling the ball.

In closing…

There are many different ways this game can play out but I sense Dallas will want to take it to Portland and make this a physical game with fouls aplenty.  They won’t want Portland to come in and score a brace or treble like what happened in Kansas City.

This is a statement game for Dallas AND Portland; FC Dallas will look to control the pace – even sometimes without the ball.  They might run traps and look to counter or they might revert to long ball and look for second chances.  Portland will want to stamp their presence in the Western Conference and show others that their posittion in the top half is warranted.

However it works out Castillo, Ferreira and Perez will most likely see quite a bit of the ball if their intent is to score.  Dallas has played a game of possession and knows going in that Portland give their opponents very little free time on the ball.  FC Dallas will probably play high and play tight; how Portland gains penetration will depend on what Dallas is willing to concede.

Portland has shown the capacity to play direct and indirect – variation has been a mainstay so far this year – with two middle defensive midfielders the road to success might be crosses from on-high and wide with some direct speed down the wings to track through-balls and switches.

I can also envision the Timbers looking for quick counters with a high and tight back four as Chara and Johnson try to shut the middle (Ferreira) and support the wings in tracking back  on either side of the pitch…

Set-pieces – as with any game a set-piece in the attacking third is dangerous – John and Hedges both have height advantages and John has 3 goals; corner balls for FC Dallas may even be more valuable to them than a free kick in the attacking half…  man-marking on those set-pieces will be critical (for both teams).

In the last game against New England it looked like every corner taken had open area short and to the near post at the corner of the 6 yard box; can Portland get their game winner from that location?

Final thought…

The track record for this team last year really has no bearing whatsoever on the outcome; this is a different year, with a different team, that has a different coach, who runs a different system – it’s time for a different result in Dallas.

Next Up Match Analysis – Portland Timbers vs FC Dallas

You can follow me on twitter @chrisgluckptfc

Perspective…

Portland Timbers are 9 games into the season and riding a seven game unbeaten streak; at this point last year PTFC had five losses and sat on six points; different side, different coach, different team, different results.   So while that one point result against New England wasn’t great it was good.

The obligation by Merritt Paulson to the Timbers Army and fans remains good to date so far; he has continued to do well in repaying the fans with some brilliant football!

Trends and Tendencies…

For most, the tactics expected in how this game played out were not a mystery.  Many opined New England would come in and park the bus… they did.  It’s not like this was rocket science – they took the same approach in Seattle and the similarities are obvious.

In Seattle, New England played 14 of 16 crosses from their left side; against Portland they played 12 of their 15 crosses from the left side… in both cases the focused penetration was down one wing.

In Seattle, New England had 28 minutes of possession; against Portland they had 30 minutes of possession.

In Seattle, New England payed 30 of 35 balls from Square #1 long and into the attacking half; in Portland they played 34 of 34 long balls from Square #1 into the Portland attacking half; in both cases the direction was clear – get it out and keep it out and play as high as you can to clog the center…

In Seattle the final score – nil-nil… likewise here…

Sounds like a broken record… but this isn’t the first time a team has parked the bus in JELD-WEN and it’s likely not the last; I imagine this is another data set to help Caleb Porter, and his staff, evaluate what approach Portland might take the third time this occurs.

For what it is worth I would offer a  reasonable attack strategy against a team playing like this would be to run your bog-standard 4-4-2.  Play out-swinging crosses from high (to the far post) and in-swinging (low) crosses from deep in the corner – both attacking approaches should target the two center-forwards or someone trailing behind.

Penetration…

No need for a diagram here; Portland showed no prejudice in penetration – 34% down each wing and 32% down the middle.

There was however a slight hiccup in creating goal scoring opportunities…  it should be expected that the right and left side would be about equal but they weren’t.   Here’s the diagram on where those GSO’s originated from.

Goal Scoring Opportunities for PTFC

An interesting offering here is that in the last two games the number of Goal Scoring Opportunities generated from the right is lower than all previous games with the exception of New York… hmmm…  the fog of war I suppose – wasn’t the injection of Harrington on the right side supposed to improve the performance down that wing?  I have no other comment at this time other than this graphic from OPTA…

As for the breakaway by Nagbe – this time he opened his hips coming into goal; in the game against Sporting KC he didn’t (so some improvement). Bottom line here is Darlington Nagbe needs to do better in these situations and make clinical precision a habit not something just to strive for.

A better technique, for some, might be to open the hips and then rotate them while dipping a shoulder (left or right) to help tuck the ball (left or right); that approach can help get the keeper committed earlier and increase the odds of finding an open net.

I wonder if Darlington Nagbe has ever seen video on Peter Beardsley’s play in the English League – he could learn a nifty approach or two by studying Beardsley; especially the  hip-twist…   perhaps someone can dig up better footage on Beardsley; this seemed to be the best one I could find…

Possession…

No need for rocket science here; if you saw the game it’s pretty clear Portland had the better of Possession and all the other finer points with the exception of goals; a game like this last year might have seen Portland lose 1-nil; they didn’t…

As for Purpose… well the purpose was lost this game – no goals – plenty of chances but no goals.

Some reflection should be needed to change that trend against teams parking the bus as that defensive approach by teams visiting JELD-WEN should continue as the season unfolds.

I have offered before that boring can be a good thing sometimes; in this case boring was a good thing for New England – they were boring and got one point.

So here’s the running view on Attacking Efficiency to date versus points in the table.

Attacking efficiency to Date

The visual and mathematical correlation remains strong and with the exception of the game in San Jose Portland have been the better attacking side in every game since their los to Montreal.  What’s kinda cool is there’s only one goose egg on this diagram; the longer that unbeaten stretch continues the better.

As for the internal data points both Goals Scored (Capt. Obvious) and Clearances (Capt. Nuance) continue to have the strongest correlation to points scored; Time of Possession (Capt. Deception) still lags far behind…

Last week I offered up a linear trend-line for Adjusted Possession with Purpose; for those interested here’s how it looks after this game against New England…  still an extremely strong relationship and in my view pretty amazing after 18 games worth of data.  I still am seeking assistance from OPTA on garnering red-zone penetrations and ‘failed assists’ for all of MLS – the wheels churn but as yet no data has been provided.

Adjusted Possession with Purpose To date

Tidbits…

There were three points for the taking Thursday night against a side that simply doesn’t score goals.  It didn’t happen…

I offered up that a slight change in starting 11 would have been well timed this game; that too didn’t happen…

Perhaps we see a couple of new faces going up against Dallas or Chivas next week?

There remain 25 league games plus the US Open Cup and other friendlies scheduled for July; the long hot months of summer are yet to come.  I would submit that Portland will need a stable of 14-16 starters to see this season through; so far we’ve seen 11-12 of them play regularly.

In closing…

I took in the Reserve match Friday evening and many of the first team players showed up with their families; a great evening saw Portland win that game 2-nil.

I believe Rincon got a brace and his second goal came from some nice buildup between Zemanski and Zizzo.

A side note on Sal; I may have missed it before but I don’t recall Sal playing crosses with his left peg.  He played a few on Friday night to good effect; it is good to see Sal back and hopefully we see his wide play again sometime soon with the first team.

Other players looking comfortable on the ball included Zemanski, Gangnes, Miller, Nanchoff and Valencia.  Fehr started in right back and looked much more comfortable than in the middle of the pitch.  Evans still seems a bit slow of pace but he has bulk and uses it to great effect in the center.  Kawulok continues to develop in center-back and he wasn’t really tested against a young Oregon State side though their #10 and #14 were quite impressive.

Center-backs: Pa Madau Kah was recently signed but most likely will not be on the substitution bench or even play for maybe a week or so… jumping in straightaway is complicated but at least another center-back has been signed — it is very unlucky that Mikael Silvestre – a great leader and great player – will be out for the next few months; he will be missed.

That roster spot was made available from a player going on injured reserve; I believe another player has also been moved to injured reserve and is out for the regular season but it remains unclear who it is; so you know Mosquera still remains on the official roster for Portland…

This area remains thin and ‘another signing’ should occur there soon; my guess is Pa Madau Kah was a signing to replace David Horst; another center-back is now needed to replace Silvestre…

Donovan Ricketts… To date he is the player of the year so far; hands-down as well as hands out wide and hands high!  —> Again stellar play and leadership from Donovan – thankfully no really spectacular goal saves this game but a couple of really good ones; he remains focused and engaged but sometime this year (with how he has been playing) he will get called up to play on his national team – Kocic will need some first team minutes pretty soon and with 4 out of their next five games on the road he should be called upon quite soon.

$64,000 Dollar Question… When hitting the 59 minute mark (or higher) in possession Portland have either lost or drawn – is there a point where the ‘return of investment in time’ becomes a negative and not a positive?

Next up Match Preview - FC Dallas – a very dangerous and very quick team…

Nothing ever comes easy in this game and an opponent who travels across country is not going to just show up – fanny about – and watch Portland score goals.

New England had a rebirth of sorts their last game and Jay Heaps has a new vision on how he wants his team to operate.

For the first time he ran Nguyen and Rowe in the central midfield area and the net result was a 2-nil win over rivals Philadelphia; on top of that Heaps employed a new 4-1-4-1 formation that seemed to fit his players combined skills and talents a bit better.

With that said here’s a link to the New England MLS web site you may find interesting (that includes a video of last weeks goals) as well as some thoughts for your consideration…

Bottom line up front here — This game is just as special for New England as the most recent road game against Kansas City was for Portland…

So what’s up with the Revolution attack this year?

To begin, their season pretty much started where it left off last year… goal drought; big time!

Very few teams found it harder to score goals last year than New England – Portland were in that same category and they’ve turned it around and while one game is not a trend setter their two goal achievement will have them brimming with confidence.

But the last game isn’t, for me, the indicator in change for New England.  Unfortunately Alston (their early season left back) has been diagnosed with Leukemia; in his place Tierney has come on to add a different dimension than with Alston.

Tierney is more inclined (based upon OPTA data) to push forward and get engaged in the attack.  That change looks to offset the more reserved defensive play provided by Farrell as the right back.   Hmmm one fullback pushing forward while one hangs in reserve; sound familiar?

With the new look that puts Cisse as a front sweeper and Nguyen and Rowe to run the attack.  So while looking like a 4-1-4-1 it’s really an inverted triangle in the center that matches up man-to-man with Chara and Johnson marshalling Nguyen and Rowe while Cisse shadows Valeri.

This midfield battle should prove very interesting in both attack and defense…

So what about some generic attacking bits of info?

With Tierney joining the first eleven the number of crosses by New England have doubled in the last four games compared to the first three.

Here’s a diagram to show that info along with the tendencies on where those crosses originate from …

New England Revolution Crosses to Date

Aye… not many crosses to begin with and those numbers are about 1/2 of what Portland regularly generates per game.

What is a bit interesting is checking OPTA and the away game against Seattle (a similar team in possession to Portland) a few weeks ago; they offered up 16 crosses with 14 of them originating on their left side - with Tierney being a major contributor.

For me not a surprise I guess – the Seattle right back is Yedlin and chances are plenty of space opened up for Tierney given how much Yedlin pushes forward himself.  I’m not sure we see an encore presentation of Harrington in the right back slot Thursday evening.

As for New England’s Curved Air Attack…

NER Curved Air Attack

For the better part of this season their keeper, Shuttleworth most often, has played about 1/2 to 1/3 of his goal kicks into the attacking half.  With that ratio and the smaller number of headers compared to some other teams faced it would appear they like to keep the ball on the ground.

The oddity here though is (again) the game against Seattle (SSFC); here they played far more long balls into the attacking half.  With that the Revolution also had far less time of possession (29 minutes).

Might that indicate a turtle shell approach with a counterattacking philosophy?  A tactic played to great effect by Montreal earlier this year…

Hard to nail that one down with this new formation/system and a more attack minded left-back… the first 15 minutes might not be the best indicator either.

Portland have given up some early goals this year, none more fresh in the mind than last week, so New England could open up with full bore, full steam, in your face aggression – or – they could conserve energy and look to counter where appropriate.  A chess match for sure this game…

However it plays out here’s a chart offering up their shot takers and potential attacking targets…

NER Shot Takers and Target Players

First off – three goals scored in 7 games is pretty pathetic; that is not a good trend but this is just one game and one particular game right after they scored two goals… don’t be fooled by the low goal total; these guys are professional and they are coming here with huge confidence.

Bengston looks like the primary Forward target but again the data can be deceptive, Fagundez has got a look in recently (247 minutes in four games) and he netted his first goal against Philly last weekend.

Fagundez appears (in OPTA) to roam the right side of the pitch while Bengston seems to find a home anywhere in the middle…  with a ver rare – if ever – appearance on the defensive side of the pitch…

As for taking shots as a whole, Nguyen seems to be the primary player from midfield while Rowe and Toja offer the odd shot now and again.  That trend with Nguyen might change though with him pairing up in the center with Rowe compared to playing on the left side earlier this season.

A good bet here is that they look to play wide and then look to bring the ball back up atop the 18 for shots central to the six yard box…

As for set-pieces (corners and free kicks) those are always a tough one to consider – no doubt Conglaves and McCarthy (I think Soares is injured) will be targets if those chances present themselves… set-pieces were not good for Portland last game; man-marking on corners/free kicks should no doubt be revisited sometime before this game.  And McCarthy is 6’5″ so he will be a BIG target on set-pieces if he can head the ball.

What might we see in the New England Defense?

The deeper they play the more space created for Portland in the midfield; the higher they play the more space they create down the wings for Wallace and Nagbe to work in.

A difficult choice really and for New England one point might be a great victory; they got a draw against Seattle by ceding possession and clogging the defending half – it’s reasonable to believe they will take that same approach in JELD-WEN…

If so it could be a very chippy game with many start-stops, disruptions, and fouls… basically anything/any tactic to slow down/interrupt the possession based attack and lock down free space as Portland pushes forward.

Cisse will be busy and probably think defense first – as will Farrell; Conglaves and McCarthy are good center-backs and their heat indexs (OPTA) show they rotate out wide left or right to support their fullbacks.

Portland in Attack…

It’s never a good idea to worry about the next game to early but Portland have Dallas and Chivas coming up next and the starting 11 these last few games probably won’t have the energy to play 3 more full games in the space of eleven days; this is why teams carry at least 18-20 guys who can start if needed.

Given the upcoming schedule might this be one of those games where we see a new starter or two/three compared to the last few games?

I won’t be surprised to see Zemanski or Miller get a start at right-back, and perhaps we even see Alhassan, Valencia or Zizzo starting top right with Piq getting the nod as well in the center forward position; this arrangement could see Nagbe move to the left to match up again with Harrington while Wallace, Jewsbury and Ryan Johnson get a rest and start the game on the bench in case need arises…

A late substitution, if things go well, might be Nanchoff; he continues to make strides in the reserves and his brace the other week might see him get ten minutes or so if game conditions warrant…

Bottom line here is that it’s a long campaign and there will be times when some players just won’t be available given national team duties or simple muscle fatigue; trying a slightly different team mix can give Caleb more information on how his combined 18-20 are taking shape.  And while this is no easy game by any stretch the three guys offered up by me that might start can start and have started games before…  I don’t imagine any drop off in overall performance if those changes are made; perhaps others will have a different view?

Regardless of change or no change whoever the starting 11 is the Capt. Obvious here is that Portland will look to possess with purpose; vary where and how they penetrate as well as  where and how they deliver goal scoring opportunities… my guess is a set-piece does not win this game.

Final tidbit — As with every strength there is a weakness – McCarthy wasn’t starting at the beginning of the season for a reason and being 6’5″ means he might be a bit slow of foot (pace or touch) so a more diminutive Portland Forward/Midfielder might enjoy going up against this guy with the ball at their feet…

Portland in Defense…

Managing energy levels will be a big challenge this game; the lads will likely ride some early game emotion upon their return to JELD-WEN (and greetings by the Timbers Army) and the pace of this game should be different; using up too much energy early on could create defensive gaps and that’s not a good thing.

Minimizing fouls in the defending half is critical to limiting set-piece opportunities…  set-pieces have not been kind to Portland – the more opportunities the opponent gets in those the more likely they are to score from those.

From a slightly different tack it would be nice if Mister Fantastic could see a clean sheet without having to make a Save of the Week… boring really is good sometimes… – I hope that is not asking/wanting too much…   of course if he does make another stellar save appropriate kudo’s will be offered.

In closing…

Caleb uses words similar to these – ‘keep the highs low and the lows high’ – the balance (physical and mental) is critical in managing expectations and playing soccer both on and off the pitch; it was a great game last weekend – time to move on and hope for even better memories as this season continues to unfold.

Next up Match Report…

If last night’s game didn’t get in your blood and get the adrenaline flowing I don’t know what will!

Perhaps by now your adrenaline rush has subsided?  It hasn’t yet for me but I’ll do my best to offer some tame tidbits, trends, and tendencies that help set the tone as this stellar early season continues to unfold…

Tidbits…

Ab-fab/superb save by Donovan Ricketts at the 91’08″ point (stoppage time) – in my opinion another MLS Save of the Week… simply stated a brilliant/wicked “Lazarus Save” as brought that ball back to life from near death in the back of the net…  could that be three on the trot and four out of eight for Rickett’s?

I offered up before this season began that Rodney Wallace was one of my five major keepers from last years’ team to this years’ team… again his presence and play have paid off for Portland!  Rodney continues to lead Portland with a plus 6 in the NHL ‘plus/minus’ rating…  I haven’t checked but given the number of goals scored by Portland he probably leads the entire MLS in that statistic…

Further to that was the complicated role he had yesterday – especially in the second half; in case you missed it he actually dropped back to help JJ run right back – and only his great athleticism saw him well placed to take on that through-ball from Chara to score the game-winner…

Ryan Johnson 12 shots taken, 8 shots on goal and 4 goals scored – 50% productivity and 67% efficiency!  If he’s not on your fantasy team he should be…  nice!

Diego Chara and Will Johnson again show dominance in pressure, tackling, and severely hampering the opponent as they try to push the ball (on the ground) through our midfield.

In case you missed it… Even though Strong and Earle acknowledged that Harrington and Jewsbury swapped to maximize the relationship between Nagbe and Harrington down the right I would offer that the swap also helped balance the overall speed of the back-four defenders against an SKC side that shows no favoritism in which side it penetrates; to prove my point SKC penetrated down their right 39% of the time while entering the red-zone down the middle 30% and down their left 31%.

So this was supposed to be a battle of the two best possession oriented teams in MLS; irony of ironies – within 1 minute – one of the best possession teams in MLS had hoofed a direct attack long ball – got a throw-in set-piece and scored a goal…

So much for Capt Obvious possession based football by SKC.  Even more ironic is that their other goal also came from a set-piece that was a ‘designed 2nd chance play’.  So did SKC really control this game given the final count on time of possession?  More later on that…

Graham Zusi – I’m still not convinced that Graham Zusi is worthy of all the media praise he seems to garner; I thought he had marginal success in this game and at times was completely outplayed – if he is the Landon Donovan incarnate the USMNT is hurting.  As a leader on the USMNT I would expect him to have far greater physical and mental presence/influence in a game like this.

If I were giving player ratings for SKC I’d offer a “D” – even with his assist he was outplayed completely… Perhaps someone can help me better understand why so many folks in the media think this guy is great and deserves to represent the National side in the World Cup… he absolutely does not play defense nor does he know how to position himself to play defense…

Since I’m rabbiting on about the USMNT I’ll offer a thought on Besler… Ryan Johnson owned Besler and he also was out of position on a regular basis… Collin as well as it was Collin’s pinching forward that led to the second goal and Besler’s poor positional play that led to the PTFC game winner…  Apart from his throw-in capability; which is usually better served by a fullback he was marginal at best as well…

I’m not sure I’ve ever read anyone giving Zusi or Besler a bollocking in the press – maybe I’m the first… I don’t know – but these guys need to play a lot better in the MLS to be worthy in my books; perhaps others have a different view?

Great body check by Harrington in the 18th minute against Sinovic – in the NHL that would have been called ‘interference’… nice touch Michael!

Without going through all the OPTA data here’s some of my takeaways on the tenor of this game – stop-start, chippy at times, lots of interceptions, lots of ‘ground attacking through-balls’, lots of tackles and lets of turnovers in the midfield…  Portland capitalized on midfield turnovers and Sporting KC didn’t… the better team won.

As noted in my match preview – once bitten twice shy with bringing on Alhassan with a one goal lead – as noted Zemanski was the first sub and Piq the second…

With the injury to Futty Danso Portland are really thin at the center-back position and the sooner they can sign someone the better!

In my match preview I offered up that SKC liked to pinch their fullbacks forward and play their center-backs higher and wider; a turnover in the right place could get Portland a goal in counterattack… the Timbers got two goals on the counterattack following a turnover in the middle third… and a turnover in the middle third also indirectly led to the corner kick by Valeri after Nielsen  made a save on Wallace’s screaming shot from atop the 18 yard box… no doubt Vermes is fuming mad about that!

There were far too many off-side calls in the second half; Portland can get better at their timing in that area… there is always room to improve.

Diego Chara came out unscathed in Yellow cards this game; well done!  - No doubt that foul called against him when he tackled the ball from Zusi was down to “interfering with a promising attack”…

On to some trends and tendencies…

First up… Penetrations and Goal Scoring Opportunities.

Penetrations and Goal Scoring Opportunities in 15 minute intervals

Kansas City, like San Jose, dominated the second half in possession, penetration and creating opportunities.

But unlike San Jose – SKC failed to convert… don’t forget that wicked save by Mister Fanstastic at the 91′ minute mark nor the two sitters Collin missed in the final 15 minutes – one 2 feet in front of goal…

On considering this diagram an interesting representation is the height of the white bar compared to the green bar; the closer they are in being the same height the more efficient the team is in converting penetration into goal scoring opportunities; the bigger the difference the less efficient.

Of note is how efficient SKC was in their 15-30 interval as well as their 60-75 and 75-90 intervals.  During those three sections Kansas City created multiple chances from one penetration… here’s a reminder of how this diagram took shape versus San Jose…

Penetrations and Goal Scoring Opportunities versus San Jose

This same pattern occurred against San Jose and it will be one to track a bit more closely, as this season progresses, to help determine how effective Portland can become in reducing the opponent’s efficiency in the later stages of the game.

So what does the overall attacking efficiency look like for Portland compared to their opponents after game 8?

PTFC and Opponent Attacking Efficiency To Date

The trend continues and the correlation between Attacking Efficiency and Points Scored gets stronger… not only visually but statistically as well.  A correlation of .7616 (the nearer the absolute value of “1″ the better) is up two tenths of a point compared to two weeks ago… the more data collected the more value the correlation can represent the data points collectively.

A side note here; after the game I opined that this was one of their most efficient games to date; based upon this data the only other game where PTFC performed ‘statistically better’ was the game against Colorado… a blinding game as well as PTFC came back from being two goals down to garner a one point draw…

Now a diagram of interest for the real stat geek…

Individual PWP data point correlation to End Result

As a point of interest I decided to check and see if any one of my seven PWP data points (TOP, PA3, GSO, Clearances, ST, SOG, SG) independently had a better or worse correlation to the End-Result (points in the league table).

In viewing the data, to date, the strongest single data point correlation to 3 Points, 1 Point or Nil-pwa is goals scored (.41); oddly enough the second best data point for correlation is “clearances”; aye… although this is an inverse relationship (correlation is roughly .35) it could be opined that a team with fewer clearances in a game stand a better chance of winning because their overall defending is not as stressed when having to make many clearances.

And more to the point – there still remains no reasonable correlation between overall time of possession and 3 Points…  perhaps more time will yield a different conclusion?

With that offered for your consideration here’s the overall diagram on Possession with Purpose to date…

Adjusted PWP with Logarithmic Trendline

As noted throughout this effort, a total of 22 games worth of data is needed to fully establish a statistically viable relationship; as things stand today the red line provides a logarithmic trendline on how the data is beginning to take shape…

Curved Air Attack and Defense; no diagram here just some observations for your consideration…

SKC vs San Jose… Sporting KC had 50% fewer Headers (38 vs 74), 50% fewer Long Ball Goal Kicks (11 vs 23) and more than 50% fewer Flick-ons (14 vs 32); as predicted SKC played a possession based game mostly on the ground.

With respect to Portland; they also played fewer Headers (24 vs 30), fewer Long Balls from Square 1 (18 vs 28) and fewer Flick-ons (6 vs 10)…  Again some rather compelling information to indicate this was a ground possession type game…

Bottom line here is that when all said and done Portland dominated Kansas City on their own turf; a truly remarkable turnaround compared to last year…

In closing…

If the tenor of this info isn’t compelling enough on how well Portland played the counterattack tonight here’s a blurb (post game) from the SKC Assistant Coach Kerry Zavagnin…  Courtesy of MLS and Sporting KC.

Expectations will no doubt increase with the large fan base of Portland (both here and abroad) – and they probably should — somewhat…

I remain cautiously optimistic given that 75% of the season still remains… but no matter how you slice it this team is just a whole lot better than what was on the pitch last year at this time.  The promise to the fans by Merritt Paulson remains on track – but a center-back is needed in short order.

Bottom line at the bottom; I’ve not tracked MLS for very long (only about 18 months now) so I’m still a ‘noob’ when it comes to crackin’ good games but in considering the games I have seen this one ranks as the best one; others may have a different view on that given the history of this team.

Next Up Match Preview – Portland at home to New England.